Some questions will be discussed here, is the EUR headed Back to 1.60? and can the GBP remain in the levels of 1.97-1.98 and higher?
The Vulnerabilities of the US Dollars
The US Dollars weakened significantly this past week as rising oil prices revealed the vulnerabilities of the United States economy. Companies are beginning to struggle and have been forced to come up with more creative ways to deal with the energy crisis. With crude oil prices hitting $135 a barrel and gasoline in many states topping $4 a gallon, US companies are making cuts across the board. Ford Motors Co for example plans on reducing production while American Airlines will be lowering capacity by 15 percent and adding bag charges. According to the futures market, some traders even expect gas prices to hit $7 to $8 a gallon. However the US is not alone in having to deal with the oil crisis which is one of the major reasons why the dollar has weakened. Over the past few weeks, the market had been slowly pricing in a pause from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, there was a growing consensus that other central banks may need to begin or continue to cut interest rates. The surge in oil prices and hawkish comments from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia dramatically altered the outlook for these central banks. With strict inflation targets, traders came to realize that interest rates for these 3 countries will remain unchanged for the foreseeable future and as a result, currency rates adjusted for these expectations. In the coming week, the vulnerabilities of the US economy may become even more apparent. The US markets are closed for Memorial Day on Monday, but we still have a busy week ahead of us with consumer confidence, new home sales, durable goods, first quarter GDP, personal income, personal spending and Chicago PMI due for release. We expect most of these numbers to be dollar bearish as US consumers continue to struggle under the weight of deteriorating personal finances.
EUR: Going Back to 1.60 and slightly more?
The EUR staged a dramatic recovery against the US dollar this past week as hawkish comments from the European Central Bank fueled speculation that a rate hike may be around the corner. Although we think that a rate hike would be a dramatic move, the stability of recent Eurozone economic data is certainly encouraging as the market's focus shifts from fears for growth to inflation. Earlier this week, German business confidence for the month of May showed a surprising improvement. Today, the PMI numbers explain why German businesses are not worried. Service and manufacturing PMI numbers both deteriorated from the prior month, but remain in expansionary territory. Next week, it may be US rather than Eurozone economic data that help the Euro / USD Pair inch towards 1.60. The only significant reports from the Eurozone are German employment, Retail PMI and German retail sales. We expect the labor market in Germany to continue to improve because the employment component of the manufacturing PMI report actually accelerated this month. Meanwhile it will also be a busy week for Switzerland who will be releasing their trade balance, UBS Consumption and KoF leading indicator reports. The currency has performed very well against the Japanese Yen this past week and it remains to be seen whether this strength can continue.
Can the British Pound Hold Onto its Gains?
It has been a great week for the British pound, which rallied more than 300 pips against the US dollar. Upside surprises in economic data as well as hawkish minutes from their latest monetary policy meeting confirmed that it will be months before we see another rate cut from the Bank of England. In fact, for all intents and purposes, the next move from the BoE may have to be a rate hike. Unlike the United States, the Bank of England has a strict inflation target and if inflation is more than 3 percent, the central bank governor is forced to write a special letter to the Chancellor to explain why inflation has increased and to outline the time frame for bringing inflation back to target. Earlier this month, consumer prices hit 3 percent on a yearly basis, and now, the BoE must do all that they can to rein in inflation. The recent stability in economic data has helped their cause as long as the economy does not fall back into a downward spiral. With no major economic data due for release next week, the British pound stands a chance at holding onto its gains as long as there isn’t surprisingly strong United States data.
Great Week for the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars
Rising commodity has been the story of the week, helping to take the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars higher. The Aussie rose to a 24 year high, putting itself within an arm’s reach of hitting parity against the USD. Rising inflation pressures and stronger economic data leaves the RBA far closer to a rate hike than any of the other major central banks. We do not believe that they are ready to raise rates, but tighter monetary policy could be a final option. The lack of meaningful economic data next week leaves the action for the CAD and NZD. Canada will be releasing its Current Account balance and GDP while New Zealand will be reporting its trade balance.
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Comments & Responses
Interview with Matthew Sheppard Senior Forex
Advisor at XForex
1. What is your name and position?
Hello, my name is Matthew Sheppard and I am a senior forex advisor at XForex.
2. What is your experience and professional background?
In the last 6 years I had filled several positions in financial institutions such as a stock broker, a foreign exchange desk manager, a financial consultant and in my recent role I serve as a senior Forex advisor for XForex which is an online forex company.
3. What type of clients you deal with?
We deal with clients on all levels from the beginning stages to the more advanced trading levels.
4. Does most of your business activity come from the online or offline world?
Because of our high presence on the web, most of our business comes from the online world.
5. Why should a trader pick XForex from all forex brokers?
Aside from all the benefits that XForex offer like commission-free trading, 24/7 online support, high leverage (200:1), XForex offers educational and learning trading experience that you won’t find anywhere else..
Our team of experts and financial trainers provide personal assistance and guide clients to financial success. We provide daily analysis and market reviews to our clients giving them a better understanding of the market and helping them trade profitably.
6. From your experience, what advice would you give a person who wants to enter the forex world?
My advice to the beginning trader entering the Forex world is as follows:
• Learn the market and understand what you’re getting into.
• Research and find the broker that suits your needs and wants. Look for a good offering but more importantly customer service, don’t go for the low rates offer without being certain they have a good customer service department. From my extensive experience in the Forex world your key to success will be your client-broker relationship. I can honestly say that at XForex they put an emphasis on servicing clients, which is so important.
• Invest smartly and calculate your risks
• Always know when to get out of a trade