UFXBank Forex Outlook: Retail Sales Data Boosts Dollar

Written by UFXBank Research Team
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USD Dollar (USD) – The dollar gained against most of the major currencies in Forex trading after Retail Sales data came out at 1.2%, better than the expected 0.7%. This in addition to signs of recovery in the U.S. markets might help the FED to cut part of the QE2 program. The Stock Markets in U.S. closed mixed with no significant change as the Dow Jones advanced by 0.08% and the NASDAQ fell by -0.17%. Crude Oil struggled with the 85 level and closed around $84.50 a barrel. Gold (XAU) decreased after a failed attempt to jump above the $1370 zone, eventually closing at $1360 an ounce. Today, the PPI is expected at 0.8% vs. 0.4% previously. The TIC Net Long-Term Transactions are expected at 100.3B vs. 128.7B. Industrial Production is expected at 0.3% vs. -0.2% previously.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro showed another day of weakness against the dollar and hit a fresh 6-week low as stocks in the US trimmed gains and debt concerns pushed the investors to prefer the safe currency. Holding above the 1.3560 support area and oversold conditions might start a recovery in the pair and push it back upwards to 1.37 zones. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3560 and with a high of 1.3750. Today, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected at -6 vs. -7.2 previously. The CPI is expected unchanged at 1.9%.

EUR/USD – Last:   1.3617







British Pound (GBP) – The Pound fell against the dollar but still holds above the 1.6 zone as it remains trading in the previous day’s range and shows more stability than the European currency. The only action that might cause a bearish trend in the pair, would be breaking the 1.5950 support level, otherwise it will remain in the known range. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6040 and with a high of 1.6153. Today, the CPI is expected unchanged at 3.1% and the Core CPI is expected at 2.6% vs. 2.7% previously.

GBP/USD - Last:  1.6063







Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Dollar completed another positive day versus the Yen reaching 6 week high on signs that the economic recovery is gathering pace. The Tertiary Industry Index came out at -0.9%, worse than the expected -0.5%. Holding above the 82.70 support zone keeps the momentum positive for the pair. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.29 and with a high of 83.24. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 82.99







Canadian dollar (CAD) – The USD/CAD pair closed the day with no major change and fluctuating 40 pips around the 1.01 zone. The USD/CAD is very choppy on the daily chart, but the trend still seems to be positive for the pair as long as it trades above parity. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0055 and with a high of 1.0137. Manufacturing Sales are expected at -0.7% vs. 2% previously.

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0080