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Can The USD Bullish behavior continue with Fed Hike Forecasts Fading?

Written by ForexCult Team
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Credit Market - What's going on basically? After a boost of top economic event risk, the USD has come through this past week with a more promising outlook for growth as well as diminished potential for a Fed rate hike this year. After the policy board announced its intentions to hold the benchmark lending rate at 2.00 percent and offered rhetoric that was more or less in line with the group’s middle-of-the-road commentary from previous months’ statements, the probability that the central bank would raise rates by the end of the year dropped from 71.6 percent to 59.9 percent. However, with evidence that the financial and credit markets are stabilizing, economic activity is turning up from the worst and upstream inflation is cooling, the Fed may be emboldened to tighten well before the consensus and continue to raise rates to a level well beyond the 75bp over the next 12 months overnight interest rate swaps are currently pricing in. Dollar will probably be on another rally soon.