Oil prices are rising and the US dollar is falling, but is this the natural relationship between these two assets? Taking a look back at the two prominent oil shocks of the past four decades (1973 and 1979), we see that this is not necessarily the case.
1973 Oil Crisis: Initially Dollar Bullish, Eventually Dollar Bearish
In 1973, oil prices jumped 134% when the members of the OAPEC, which is OPEC plus Egypt and Syria, announced that they were no longer shipping oil to nations that supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt. This effectively shut down exports to the US, Western Europe and Japan. As a result, prices rose significantly to account for the sharp reduction in supply. At the same time, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, and Qatar unilaterally raised prices by 17 percent and announced production cuts after negotiations with major oil companies.