UFXBank Forex Outlook: Drop in Oil Drops Looney

Written by UFXBank Research Team
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USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar strengthened against most of the other major currencies as a correction of the last few days. Core CPI came out at 0% vs. 0.10% forecast, and Michigan Inflation Expectations came out at 2.20% vs. 2.70% forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones continued their uptrend for the third week in a row, closing at +0.5% and +0.1% respectively. Crude oil weakened for the fourth day in a row, falling by 1.2%, to close at $73.66 a barrel. Gold (XAU) rose to a new record high of $1282, strengthening by 2.9% comparing to last week, but finally closing at $1279 an ounce. Today no major reports are expected.

EURO (EUR) – The Euro continued to stay near 1.3000 levels in Forex trading, as it did in last week’s advance versus the Dollar. This occurred as risk appetite waned amid fresh fears over the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. The momentum of the EUR/USD is still bullish for the euro, and as long it’s above 1.3000 levels, a long position is preferred. Also, the CCI indicator is above +100, which supports an uptrend as well. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3031 and with a high of 1.3067. No major economic data is expected today.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3071







British Pound (GBP) – The Pound continued to stay near its strongest level versus the US dollar in more than a month. The main resistance of the GBP/USD on the daily chart is 1.57, and if the pair crosses this rate, it will continue its upward trend. If not, we could see the pair continue to decline to the 1.5580 level. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5592 and with a high of 1.5648. No major economic data is expected today.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.5664






Japanese Yen (JPY) – The yen fluctuated near the 85.70 levels for a fourth day versus the dollar on speculation the U.S. housing market is stagnating, which is increasing demand for safer assets. The momentum of the USD/JPY is still strongly bullish these days, and the resistance on the daily chart is at 86. One thing to note is that there is a pennant shape forming. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 85.593 and with a high of 85.929. No economic data is expected today due to a bank holiday.

USD/JPY-Last: 85.71






Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian Dollar weakened against the US dollar as Oil fell more than 1% and drifted the Canadian Dollar along with it. The momentum of the USD/CAD is still negative for the US Dollar, and as long the USD/CAD is below 1.0400 levels, a short position is preferred. The next resistance on the one hour chart is located at 1.0350. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0216 and with a high of 1.0350. Wholesale Sales is expected to come in at 0.60% versus -0.30% prior.

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0312