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UFXBank Forex Outlook: Calm Before the Storm?

Written by UFXBank Research Team
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USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar traded with a narrow range and closed almost unchanged against most major currencies in Forex trading because of speculation that the Federal Reserve will take more steps to ease monetary policy, damping demand for U.S. assets. The NASDAQ and Dow Jones weakened by 0.48% and 0.44% respectively, while crude oil remained unchanged, closing at $76.50 a barrel. Gold (XAU) continued to rise, strengthening by 0.1%, and closing at $1298.60 an ounce. Today, CB Consumer Confidence is expected at 52.5 vs. 53.5 prior.

EURO (EUR) – The Euro weakened a bit from a five month high against the Dollar as renewed signs of debt problems at European banks and countries such as Ireland and Portugal reduced demand for assets in the European zone. The momentum of the EUR/USD is still strongly bullish for the euro, and as long as it’s above 1.3350 levels a long position is preferred. The next resistance line on the daily chart is at 1.3700, and the RSI indicator supports an uptrend as well. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3425 and with a high of 1.3506. Today, German Prelim CPI is expected to weak from 0.0% to -0.2%.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3459

Resistance

1.3500

Support

1.3425

1.3285

1.3100

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound also stayed almost unchanged against the dollar after a quiet day of news and data from these countries. The main resistance of the GBP/USD on the daily chart is 1.6000, and the momentum is bullish as long as the price is above 1.5750. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5787 and with a high of 1.5867.  Today, Current Account is expected to remain at -9.60B, and Final GDP is expected to stay at 1.2%.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.5825

Resistance

1.5867

Support

1.5785

1.5600

1.5500

Japanese Yen (JPY) –The Yen traded with a very small range versus the Dollar after there was no important news that influenced this pair. The USD/JPY has been fluctuating around 84.50 over the last four days. The support on the one hour chart is at 84.20, and if the pair breaks below the support line, the trend will continue to decline. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 84.11 and with a high of 84.37. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 84.24

Resistance

84.40

84.70

85.40

Support

84.10

Canadian Dollar (CAD) – The Canadian Dollar fell from a near six week high versus the Dollar, as U.S. stocks and crude oil declined and investors speculated that the Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney may be unwilling to raise interest rates further. The momentum of the USD/CAD is still negative for the US Dollar, and as long the USD/CAD is below 1.0400 levels, a short position is preferred. The next support on the daily chart is located at 1.0200. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0223 and with a high of 1.0305. No economic data is expected today.

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0291

Resistance

1.0345

1.0380

Support

1.0225

1.0190