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UFXBank Forex Outlook: Gold Nearing $1350

Written by UFXBank Research Team
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USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar was down against most major currencies in Forex trading after worse than expected U.S. data on ADP nonfarm payrolls, which came out at -39K vs. 23K forecast. This, in addition to commodities advancing sharply after positive Crude Oil Inventories data, supported a weaker Dollar during the US session. The NASDAQ weakened by 0.80% and the Dow Jones advanced by 0.21%. Crude oil rose by 0.5%, closing at $82.58 a barrel, and Gold (XAU) continued to rise, reaching a new record (above $1349 ) during the session. In the end, Gold strengthened by 0.65%, closing at $1347.90 an ounce. Today, Unemployment Claims are expected to increase from 453K to 455K.

EURO (EUR) – The Euro touched an eight month high versus the Dollar on speculation that the Federal Reserve will join the Bank of Japan in increasing purchases of government debt to sustain an economic recovery. Also, the ADP data from the US, which came out negative, supported a stronger euro. The momentum of the EUR/USD is still strongly bullish for the euro, and as long as it’s above 1.3600 levels, a long position is preferred. The next resistance line on the daily chart is 1.4000 and the RSI and the 10 moving average indicators support an uptrend as well. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3798 and with a high of 1.3948. Today, the interest rate decision is expecting to remain at 1.00%, German Industrial Production is expected to rise from 0.1% to 0.4%, and there is an ECB Press Conference.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3918

Resistance

1.3950

Support

1.3800

1.3630

1.3560

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound weakened versus the Dollar and the Euro as speculation waits for the MPC’s decision deciding whether to resume asset purchases, or to keep its bond buying program at 200 billion pounds, as it has been the past 11 months. The main resistance of the GBP/USD on the daily chart is still 1.6000. The momentum is bullish and as long as the price is above 1.5750, the main support on the one hour chart is 1.5700. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5832 and with a high of 1.5940. Today, the interest rate decision is expected to remain at 0.50%, Manufacturing Production is expected to weaken from 0.3% to 0.1%.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.5868

Resistance

1.5940

Support

1.5830

1.5775

1.5700

Japanese Yen (JPY) –The Yen strengthened to a 15 year high against the Dollar after a private report showed U.S. companies unexpectedly cut jobs last month, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve will buy U.S. assets to spur a slowing economy.  The USD/JPY has been trading in a negative trend for the last three weeks and therefore, the momentum is bearish for the Dollar. The main support on the daily chart is 82.60. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.70 and with a high of 83.24. No major economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 82.90

Resistance

83.15

83.80

84.00

Support

82.70

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian Dollar touched a five month high versus the Dollar among speculation that central banks of other nations will continue to ease monetary policy, as the Bank of Canada remains on hold. The momentum of the USD/CAD is still strongly negative for the US Dollar and as long as the USD/CAD is below 1.0400 levels, a short position is preferred. The next support on the daily chart is located at 1.0000. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0062 and with a high of 1.0167. Today, Building Permits are expected at -1.9% vs. -3.3% prior.

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0105

Resistance

1.0180

1.0270

1.0345

Support

1.0060

 

 

 

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