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UFXBank Forex Outlook: USD Holding its Position

Written by UFXBank Research Team
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USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar strengthened slightly against most of the major currencies in Forex trading. Industrial production came out as expected with no change at -0.2%. The TIC Net long-Term Transactions greatly exceeded expectations; 128.70B vs. the forecast of 47.5B. Adding to the positive tone, the NAHB Housing market was also up by 16.00 vs. an expected 13.00. The NASDAQ and Dow Jones advanced by 0.73% and 0.48%, respectively. Crude oil was up by 2.3% to close at $83 a barrel, while Gold (XAU) increased by 10 cents, closing at $1372 an ounce. Today, Building permits are expected at 0.58M vs. 0.57M prior, Housing Starts are expected at 0.59M vs 0.60M prior, and Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to speak later on.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro weakened considerably against the Dollar to fall below 1.4000 after testing it numerous times. The EUR/USD seems to be in a range between 1.3925 and 1.400. Above 1.4000, we can expect positive momentum. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3830 and with a high of 1.3999. Today, the German Zew Economic sentiment report is expected at -7.00 vs. a prior -3.30. The Zew Economic sentiment scheduled to be released and is expected at -2.00 vs. 4.40 prior.  The ECB president is also set to speak.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3937

Resistance

1.4000

1.4158

Support

1.3917

1.3831

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound dropped against the Dollar, falling below the 1.5900 level after the pair tried to break 1.5950, which seems to be its resistance. The momentum is slightly bullish as long as the GBP/USD is higher than 1.5750. Overall, GBP/USD traded at a low of 1.5834 and a high of 1.5993. Today, CBI Industrial Trends Orders are to be announced and are expected at -19 vs. -17.00 previously, and the BOE governor is to speak later on.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.5881

Resistance

1.5944

Support

1.5836

Japanese Yen (JPY) –The Yen entered a tight range with the Dollar, between 81.12 and 81.34 and the momentum will be governed by a breakout from this range. Below 81.12, the momentum can be expected to remain negative, and above 81.34 the momentum may be expected to be positive. Overall the USD/JPY traded at a high of 81.39 and a low of 81.12.

USD/JPY-Last: 81.35

Resistance

81.37

81.70

Support

81.12

80.86

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian Dollar weakened against the dollar to reach highs of 1.0168 and corrected slightly, to levels of 1.01502. The USD/CAD pair seems to be on a bullish trend as long as the pair remains above parity. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0133 and with a high of 1.0229.Today, although the Interest rate decision didn’t change at 1.00%, ESIST traders wait eagerly to take advantage of the announcement.

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0185

Resistance

1.0196

1.0225

Support

1.0132

1.0000