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Friday, 04 November 2011 14:12

EUR/USD Classical Technical Report 11.04

Daily_Classical_EURUSD_body_eur.png, EUR/USD Classical Technical Report 11.04

EUR/USD: The recent intense rally has now been completely offset and the market finally looks like it has carved out a fresh lower top by 1.4250 ahead of the next major downside extension. From here, we look for a daily close back below 1.3650 to confirm bias and accelerate declines towards critical support at 1.3145. Below 1.3145 will then open the next major drop towards our longer-term objective into the lower 1.2000’s. Any intraday rallies should now be well capped below 1.3900 on a daily close basis, while only back above 1.4250 would negate outlook and give reason for pause.

--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKruger

To be added to Joel Kruger’s distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.

04 November 2011 06:42 GMT
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Friday, 04 November 2011 14:08

FOREX: Markets in Holding Pattern Before US Jobs Report, G20 Outcome

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Cautiously Rebounds Overnight, All Eyes on Employment Data
  • G20 to Announce Cannes Summit Outcome as Greece Holds Confidence Vote
  • S&P 500 Stock Futures Flat, Pointing to Indecision Across Financial Markets

The US Dollar corrected narrowly higher in overnight trade after posting its largest decline in 5 days over the preceding 24 hours, adding as much as 0.2 percent against its leading counterparts. All eyes are now on the US Employment figures, with expectations calling for the economy to add 95,000 jobs in October.

The result would mark a narrow slowdown in hiring from the preceding month, and coupled with disappointing ISM manufacturing- and service-sector readings reported earlier this week may rekindle worries about the fragile US recovery. However, it remains to be seen whether such an outcome proves negative for risk appetite given its ominous implications for global growth at large or positive in that it bolsters the case for additional stimulus from the Federal Reserve (particularly after Ben Bernanke made clear that all options are on the table earlier in the week).

Meanwhile, the outcome of the G20 summit in Cannes is set to be unveiled at 13:15 GMT, with markets looking for guidance on the international consensus on working through the Euro Zone debt crisis after a tumultuous week of political posturing. Greece once again threatens to spoil confidence-building as it holds a confidence vote that may conceivably dismantle the administration of Prime Minister George Papandreou, creating a power vacuum at the worst possible time.

However, coalition-building efforts are underway and if a unity government is successfully established, the confidence vote will be rendered essentially meaningless while stoking optimism in the ability of the administration in Athens to pass austerity measures and secure EU/IMF aid disbursement. As it stands, S&P 500 stock index futures are trading flat ahead of the opening bell in Europe, hinting traders are unwilling to commit to a directional bias until headline event risk passes.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement

-

-

-

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:55

EUR

German PMI Services (OCT F)

52.1

52.1

Medium

8:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (OCT)

-

282.4B

Low

8:45

EUR

Italian PMI Services (OCT)

45.5

45.8

Low

8:50

EUR

French PMI Services (OCT F)

46

46

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (OCT F)

47.2

47.2

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (OCT F)

47.2

47.2

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (SEP)

0.2%

-0.1%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

5.8%

5.9%

Medium

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)

7.5%

3.9%

Medium

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

0.1%

-1.4%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3702

1.3900

GBPUSD

1.5925

1.6110

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it . Follow me on Twitter at

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.

Published in Forex News
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Friday, 04 November 2011 14:03

FOREX: Markets in Holding Pattern Before US Jobs Report, G20 Outcome

Talking Points

  • US Dollar Cautiously Rebounds Overnight, All Eyes on Employment Data
  • G20 to Announce Cannes Summit Outcome as Greece Holds Confidence Vote
  • S&P 500 Stock Futures Flat, Pointing to Indecision Across Financial Markets

The US Dollar corrected narrowly higher in overnight trade after posting its largest decline in 5 days over the preceding 24 hours, adding as much as 0.2 percent against its leading counterparts. All eyes are now on the US Employment figures, with expectations calling for the economy to add 95,000 jobs in October.

The result would mark a narrow slowdown in hiring from the preceding month, and coupled with disappointing ISM manufacturing- and service-sector readings reported earlier this week may rekindle worries about the fragile US recovery. However, it remains to be seen whether such an outcome proves negative for risk appetite given its ominous implications for global growth at large or positive in that it bolsters the case for additional stimulus from the Federal Reserve (particularly after Ben Bernanke made clear that all options are on the table earlier in the week).

Meanwhile, the outcome of the G20 summit in Cannes is set to be unveiled at 13:15 GMT, with markets looking for guidance on the international consensus on working through the Euro Zone debt crisis after a tumultuous week of political posturing. Greece once again threatens to spoil confidence-building as it holds a confidence vote that may conceivably dismantle the administration of Prime Minister George Papandreou, creating a power vacuum at the worst possible time.

However, coalition-building efforts are underway and if a unity government is successfully established, the confidence vote will be rendered essentially meaningless while stoking optimism in the ability of the administration in Athens to pass austerity measures and secure EU/IMF aid disbursement. As it stands, S&P 500 stock index futures are trading flat ahead of the opening bell in Europe, hinting traders are unwilling to commit to a directional bias until headline event risk passes.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement

-

-

-

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:55

EUR

German PMI Services (OCT F)

52.1

52.1

Medium

8:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (OCT)

-

282.4B

Low

8:45

EUR

Italian PMI Services (OCT)

45.5

45.8

Low

8:50

EUR

French PMI Services (OCT F)

46

46

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Composite (OCT F)

47.2

47.2

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone PMI Services (OCT F)

47.2

47.2

Medium

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (SEP)

0.2%

-0.1%

Low

10:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)

5.8%

5.9%

Medium

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (SEP)

7.5%

3.9%

Medium

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (SEP)

0.1%

-1.4%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3702

1.3900

GBPUSD

1.5925

1.6110

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it . Follow me on Twitter at

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.

Published in Forex News
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Friday, 04 November 2011 13:58

US Dollar Direction to be Influenced by G20 and NFPs on Friday

  • ECB rate cut welcome by markets and keeps currency supported for now
  • Still plenty of problems in region and need to see EFSF expanded
  • G20 not expected to respond with anything more than talk
  • Continue to project relative Aussie underperformance going forward
  • Eurozone data weaker across the board; German factory orders awful
  • Canada employment much weaker than expected
  • US NFPs to dictate price action for remainder of day

Markets have been locked in a consolidation for most of the day thus far, but we expect this consolidation to come to an end into North American trade. While there was some room for optimism on Thursday following a surprise ECB rate cut which showed the markets that the central bank was willing to move out of its comfort zone in order to help stimulate the local economy (even at the risk of rising inflation), the net result is a lower yielding Euro which reflects a troubled economy in desperate need of stimulation.

Relative performance versus the USD on Friday (as of 11:20GMT)

  1. EUR +0.12%
  2. JPY -0.01%
  3. GBP -0.09%
  4. AUD -0.17%
  5. NZD -0.21%
  6. CHF -0.53%
  7. CAD -1.15%

The G20 is one of the big events for the day, but we see no reason why this meeting will be any different than any other of this kind which ends up being all talk and no action. But in this case, we agree with the all talk approach. After all, why should there be any action taken by the international community to help a Eurozone region that appears to be riddled with an endless amount of problems and has shown no real ability to competently deal with its own deterioration?

Overall, the risk seems to still be tilted to the downside, and we will be looking for more opportunities to be buying the US Dollar and selling some of the higher yielding currencies. The Australian Dollar is one currency which we are very bearish on, and although the economy has held up quite well throughout the crisis, there are now some real signs that things are starting to slow at a more accelerated pace than anticipated. The latest downbeat RBA policy statement confirms our outlook and this coupled with a downturn in the Chinese economy and potential spread of contagion into this region of the world, should in our opinion expose the Australian Dollar to some relative underperformance going forward.

On the data front, European data was quite soft, with PMIs weaker across the board out of Italy, France and Germany, while German factory orders were abysmal. Canada data did not help to prop sentiment any, with employment coming in much weaker than forecast. The jump in the unemployment rate caught many off guard and opened the door for a heavy round of intraday selling in the Loonie. Looking ahead, things pick up significantly into North America with the release of the all important monthly NFP numbers out of the US. Markets are looking for an unchanged 9.1% unemployment rate and 95.0k change in Non-farm payrolls. US equity futures and commodities trade flat into European trade.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

morning_slices_body_eur.png, US Dollar Direction to be Influenced by G20 and NFPs on Friday

EUR/USD: Last Thursday’s intense rally has now been completely offset and the market finally looks like it has carved out a fresh lower top by 1.4250 ahead of the next major downside extension. From here, we look for a daily close back below 1.3650 to confirm bias and accelerate declines towards critical support at 1.3145. Below 1.3145 will then open the next major drop towards our longer-term objective into the lower 1.2000’s. Any intraday rallies should now be very well capped below 1.3900 on a daily close basis, while only back above 1.4250 would negate outlook and give reason for pause.

morning_slices_body_jpy2.png, US Dollar Direction to be Influenced by G20 and NFPs on Friday

USD/JPY:Monday’s surge has resulted in an end to a very tight multi-week trade largely confined to the 76.00’s and a likely shift in the overall construct, with the pair carving out a major bottom by 75.50. The price has now broken back above the daily Ichimoku cloud for the first time in several months to confirm a potential shift in the trend, and Monday’s close above the cloud reaffirms. Next key topside resistance comes in by 80.25 and a break above this level will likely accelerate gains and expose the 82.00-85.00 area further up. Look for any intraday setbacks to be well supported above 77.50 with only a close back below this level to delay. Back above 79.55 accelerates gains.

morning_slices_body_gbp2.png, US Dollar Direction to be Influenced by G20 and NFPs on Friday

GBP/USD: After stalling by the 200-Day SMA and a major double bottom objective over 1.6100, scope exists for a resumption of what we believe to be a broader downtrend. Look for a daily close back below 1.5890 to confirm and accelerate towards next key support at 1.5650, while ultimately, only a close back above the 200-Day SMA negates.

morning_slices_body_swiss1.png, US Dollar Direction to be Influenced by G20 and NFPs on Friday

USD/CHF: The market has been in the process of a major correction since peaking out at 0.9315 on October 6. However, the overall outlook remains constructive, with the pair looking like it is in the process of carving a major base ahead of some significant upside over the coming weeks and months. Look for the latest round of setbacks to be well supported in the 0.8500’s, where a fresh medium-term higher low is sought out ahead of a bullish resumption back towards and eventually through 0.9315. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 0.8500 would concern. A daily close back above 0.8900 will confirm bias and accelerate gains.

--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKruger

To be added to Joel Kruger’s distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Published in Forex News
Read more...
Friday, 04 November 2011 13:58

US Dollar Direction to be Influenced by G20 and NFPs on Friday

  • ECB rate cut welcome by markets and keeps currency supported for now
  • Still plenty of problems in region and need to see EFSF expanded
  • G20 not expected to respond with anything more than talk
  • Continue to project relative Aussie underperformance going forward
  • Eurozone data weaker across the board; German factory orders awful
  • Canada employment much weaker than expected
  • US NFPs to dictate price action for remainder of day

Markets have been locked in a consolidation for most of the day thus far, but we expect this consolidation to come to an end into North American trade. While there was some room for optimism on Thursday following a surprise ECB rate cut which showed the markets that the central bank was willing to move out of its comfort zone in order to help stimulate the local economy (even at the risk of rising inflation), the net result is a lower yielding Euro which reflects a troubled economy in desperate need of stimulation.

Relative performance versus the USD on Friday (as of 11:20GMT)

  1. EUR +0.12%
  2. JPY -0.01%
  3. GBP -0.09%
  4. AUD -0.17%
  5. NZD -0.21%
  6. CHF -0.53%
  7. CAD -1.15%

The G20 is one of the big events for the day, but we see no reason why this meeting will be any different than any other of this kind which ends up being all talk and no action. But in this case, we agree with the all talk approach. After all, why should there be any action taken by the international community to help a Eurozone region that appears to be riddled with an endless amount of problems and has shown no real ability to competently deal with its own deterioration?

Overall, the risk seems to still be tilted to the downside, and we will be looking for more opportunities to be buying the US Dollar and selling some of the higher yielding currencies. The Australian Dollar is one currency which we are very bearish on, and although the economy has held up quite well throughout the crisis, there are now some real signs that things are starting to slow at a more accelerated pace than anticipated. The latest downbeat RBA policy statement confirms our outlook and this coupled with a downturn in the Chinese economy and potential spread of contagion into this region of the world, should in our opinion expose the Australian Dollar to some relative underperformance going forward.

On the data front, European data was quite soft, with PMIs weaker across the board out of Italy, France and Germany, while German factory orders were abysmal. Canada data did not help to prop sentiment any, with employment coming in much weaker than forecast. The jump in the unemployment rate caught many off guard and opened the door for a heavy round of intraday selling in the Loonie. Looking ahead, things pick up significantly into North America with the release of the all important monthly NFP numbers out of the US. Markets are looking for an unchanged 9.1% unemployment rate and 95.0k change in Non-farm payrolls. US equity futures and commodities trade flat into European trade.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

morning_slices_body_eur.png, US Dollar Direction to be Influenced by G20 and NFPs on Friday

EUR/USD: Last Thursday’s intense rally has now been completely offset and the market finally looks like it has carved out a fresh lower top by 1.4250 ahead of the next major downside extension. From here, we look for a daily close back below 1.3650 to confirm bias and accelerate declines towards critical support at 1.3145. Below 1.3145 will then open the next major drop towards our longer-term objective into the lower 1.2000’s. Any intraday rallies should now be very well capped below 1.3900 on a daily close basis, while only back above 1.4250 would negate outlook and give reason for pause.

morning_slices_body_jpy2.png, US Dollar Direction to be Influenced by G20 and NFPs on Friday

USD/JPY:Monday’s surge has resulted in an end to a very tight multi-week trade largely confined to the 76.00’s and a likely shift in the overall construct, with the pair carving out a major bottom by 75.50. The price has now broken back above the daily Ichimoku cloud for the first time in several months to confirm a potential shift in the trend, and Monday’s close above the cloud reaffirms. Next key topside resistance comes in by 80.25 and a break above this level will likely accelerate gains and expose the 82.00-85.00 area further up. Look for any intraday setbacks to be well supported above 77.50 with only a close back below this level to delay. Back above 79.55 accelerates gains.

morning_slices_body_gbp2.png, US Dollar Direction to be Influenced by G20 and NFPs on Friday

GBP/USD: After stalling by the 200-Day SMA and a major double bottom objective over 1.6100, scope exists for a resumption of what we believe to be a broader downtrend. Look for a daily close back below 1.5890 to confirm and accelerate towards next key support at 1.5650, while ultimately, only a close back above the 200-Day SMA negates.

morning_slices_body_swiss1.png, US Dollar Direction to be Influenced by G20 and NFPs on Friday

USD/CHF: The market has been in the process of a major correction since peaking out at 0.9315 on October 6. However, the overall outlook remains constructive, with the pair looking like it is in the process of carving a major base ahead of some significant upside over the coming weeks and months. Look for the latest round of setbacks to be well supported in the 0.8500’s, where a fresh medium-term higher low is sought out ahead of a bullish resumption back towards and eventually through 0.9315. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 0.8500 would concern. A daily close back above 0.8900 will confirm bias and accelerate gains.

--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKruger

To be added to Joel Kruger’s distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Published in Forex News
Read more...
Friday, 04 November 2011 13:55

Fundamental Oil

Fundamental Oil
Share |
News Crude extend the bullish run into third session this morning

Previous

Forecast

Analysis

Crude oil futures are trading with an upside bias into the European session with continued focus on the debt-laden Greece, the progress among the G20 leaders, and U.S. jobs report all supported by relief that the Greek referendum will not take place.

Crude oil built on yesterday’s gains when the contracts rallied 1.7% on news that Greece will not hold the referendum and Prime Minister Papandreou stepped back from the call with agreement that the opposition will back the new EU bailout.

December futures are currently trading higher by 0.17% at $94.22 rebounding from the low of $93.60 and off the high set at $94.49 a barrel.

Investors are closely watching the developments in Europe with one eye on Greece and the other on Cannes. The progress seen is that Greece might avert default for now and go back to the only accepted path, which is the EU support and bailout and avoid falling out of the euro. Papandreou said that it was never about the referendum and backing from the opposition for the new bailout and the consensus negates the need for the referendum, and finance minister Evangelos Venizelos also said to lawmakers in Athens yesterday that the referendum will not be held as he lead the opposition in the part against the premier.

Still, the eyes remain on a confidence vote in parliament in Greece, where reports said that if the government wins the confidence vote Papandreou agreed to step-down to make way for a coalition government to secure the political stability and avoid political vacuum or early elections for now. The government should secure the agreement for the new bailout and that is the paramount importance before they take the decision to hold new elections.

Markets found the news positive, and the race to contain the crisis a positive indication that might save the global economy from landing into a deep harsh recession. They also welcomed the ECB’s decision to cut rates for now to ease the economic downturn, especially as Draghi said that Europe might be heading to a mild recession.

The developments in Greece and continued efforts from the G20 leaders to contain the crisis are supporting hope in the market and continued crude gains. The leaders ended their first day of meeting with the debt crisis still dominating the agenda, as they feel the recent setback in Greece forced European leader to miss the deadline given and talks focus on utilizing global support to ease the strain and protect systemic nations by expanding the fire power of the IMF.

We see the markets struggling still amid the high uncertainty over the outlook and with the never ending Greek drama. So far the progress is supporting the market and the final event will be a break or make for markets, the infamous jobs report from the United States.

Investors have been eyeing good macroeconomic data from the US economy which eased the woes of recession. The data today can have the support for crude’s rally to continue or reverse again south.

The market expects 95 thousand jobs gain and unemployment to linger at 9.1% and any better than expected data will have for sure a positive impact on the market while weak numbers on the contrary can erase the rally seen the past sessions, especially as we come to the end of the week and uncertainty is still governing the final call from the G20 which will surely come after markets close for the weekend today.


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Friday, 04 November 2011 13:50

Fundamental Precious Metals

Gold declines at the end of this week, possible rebound
Share |

As this week comes to an end, Europe remains the main focus in the market with the economic conditions highly uncertain in addition to the political conflict seen in Greece, while all eyes focused on the G20 summit for more results, especially after the European Central Bank had to cut key rates due to the rising concerns of a Greek default, with the critical jobs report from the world’s largest economy later on the day.

Gold opened the session in Asia today at $1763.75 per ounce and recorded the highest at $1764.25 and the lowest at $1754.08, and is currently hovering around $1756.24 per ounce. Over weekly basis, metal opened this week at $1741.85 per ounce and fluctuated heavily recording the highest at $1767.27 per ounce and the lowest at $1681.13 and is expected to rebound to the upside today.

Gold is pressured to the downside ahead of the critical fundamentals and comments from leaders and policy makers, where investors attempts to avert as much risk as possible due to the high level of uncertainty in Europe, where all investors wonder if leaders will provide markets with positivity and agree on measures to be taken quickly to rescue Europe as the currency union is at risk.

As we can see the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen are demanded excessively as this week comes to an end, especially when investors attempts to avert risky investments and positions ahead of the coming week, where as usual the session could be very volatile while heavy fluctuations are highly possible especially when eyes will shift to the New York session awaiting the crucial jobs report and unemployment figures from the U.S.

However, our expectations for the day depend on the awaited heavy fundamentals in addition to any comments from world leaders and European officials, where we suggest two scenarios for our session today.

The first one is positive, and could support the shiny metal to recover the losses seen now and gain more over weekly basis, where this scenario suggests that world leaders will reach to an agreement to support the euro area region and Greece will cancel the referendum and commit to the bailout deal, while the jobs report in the U.S. will show that the economy added jobs to the public sector inline or better than expectations, which could reduce demand for the safe haven, major currencies and metals will rebound in addition to commodities.

However, in case world leaders disappoint investors as European lawmakers did before and provided nothing to the market, the U.S. jobs report missed the expected addition, markets will turn into deep pessimism and the U.S. dollar could extend the huge weekly gains, forcing more downside pressures on metals and other risky investments to trade lower at the end of this week.

Among other precious metals, silver also declined after it opened the session today at $34.48 per ounce, recording a high of $34.69 and a low of $33.90 and is currently hovering around $34.26 an ounce.


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Friday, 04 November 2011 13:45

Technical Cross

Great British Pound vs. Japanese Yen (GBP / JPY)


Midday Report


The pair touched the awaited 125.10 level and reversed to the downside slightly, thus, our morning scenario is activated and remains valid so long as daily closing remain below 125.10.

 

The trading range for the day may be among the 122.00 support and 127.00 resistance.

The short term trend is to the downside targeting 122.00 so long as 150.00 remain intact.

Morning Report

Weekly Report



Support 124.55 123.95 123.15 122.60 122.00

Resistance 125.00 125.65 126.00 126.55 127.00

Recommendation Our morning expectations remain valid.


Euro vs. Japanese Yen (EUR / JPY)


Midday Report


The pair tested the awaited level at 107.65 and started to incline as shown on image, accordingly, our morning scenario is activated, while we need the pair to settle above the aforementioned support to ensure not delaying acquiring the awaited targets.

 

The trading range for the day may be among the 105.50 support and 109.60 resistance.

The short term trend is to the downside targeting 94.80 so long as 123.30 remain intact.

Morning Report

Weekly Report



Support 107.65 106.95 106.35 106.15 105.50

Resistance 108.00 108.80 109.00 109.60 110.55

Recommendation Our morning expectations remain valid.


Euro vs. Great British Pound (EUR / GBP)


Midday Report


 

The pair is trading with clear positivity touching earlier today the sensitive retest level at 0.8650. in general, we still need more confirmations regarding the next move, thus we will remain neutral and monitor the daily closing round 0.8650 and 0.8525 levels.

The trading range for the day may be among the 0.8525 support and 0.8720 resistance.

The short term trend is to the upside targeting 1.0370 so long as 0.8165 remain intact

Morning Report

Weekly Report



Support 0.8590 0.8525 0.8500 0.8460 0.8415

Resistance 0.8650 0.8685 0.8720 0.8805 0.8845

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend staying aside awaiting more confirmations for the next move.


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Friday, 04 November 2011 13:37

Technical Precious Metals

Gold


Midday Report

The metal has shown a bearish tendency during the previous session, but the trading range is still tight due to the calmness that controls the market movements ahead of NFP data today as we know. Anyway, we still believe that the metal will continue seeking for an area to reverse in order to complete the potential bearish harmonic AB=CD pattern. Any intraday rallies should be capped below 1830.00 zones, while the negative sign on Stochastic should be activated as well around the pivotal resistance of 1785.00 zones. To conclude, our morning anticipations remain valid for the rest of the day.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1695.00 and key resistance now at 1830.00.

The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside targeting 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.

Morning Report

Weekly Report



Support 1753.00 1745.00 1735.00 1728.00 1715.00

Resistance 1765.00 1772.00 1785.00 1800.00 1807.00

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling rallies towards 1785.00 targeting 1705.00 and stop loss above 1830.00 might be appropriate.


Silver


Midday Report


The downside attempts within the recent hours was limited at 34.18 failing to reach our awaited entry level, while the markets are anticipating the major NFP jobs reportك therefore we will be cautious this afternoon and change our approach to waiting for a breakout in either direction to jump into the potential upcoming move; either by breaching the resistance level at 34.75 to the upside or dipping below the minor possible rising wedge formation shown above.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 32.20 and key resistance now at 37.00.

The short-term trend is to the downside targeting 26.65 as far as areas of 48.50 remain intact.

*The provided chart based on GMT+2*

Morning Report

Weekly Report



Support 34.00 33.45 32.75 32.15 31.50

Resistance 34.75 35.50 36.45 36.90 37.25

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we recommend buying silver with four-hour closing above 34.75 argeting 35.50 ,37.00. Stop loss with hourly closing below 34.15 OR Selling silver with four-hour closing below 33.95 targeting 33.30 and 32.15. Stop loss with hourly closing above 34.50 might be appropriate.


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Friday, 04 November 2011 13:33

Technical oil

Oil Report


Midday Report: Crude oil futures for December settlement


The commodity is currently challenging the two technical barriers, the 200 days SMA and the main descending resistance as shown above. After breaching the minor channel we mentioned previously, the price continued the upside move to reach the current levels just below 95.00. Unfortunately, due to the sensitivity of the current market conditions, technically and fundamentally; as the NFP report is to be released within a couple of hours, we should remain on the sideline again.

The trading range for the day is among the major support at 90.60 and the major resistance at 96.00.

 

The short-term trend is to the downside with steady daily closing below 100.00 targeting 65.00.

*The provided chart based on GMT+2*

Morning Report

Weekly Report



Support 94.50 94.00 93.50 92.45 91.80

Resistance 95.00 95.50 96.30 97.00 98.00

Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above we recommend staying aside for the rest of the day.


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