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Friday, 26 November 2010 03:09

Crude Completing Small Flat Correction

Contributed By: DailyFx


5 waves down are visible from the top, which confirms that the larger trend has reversed. The move above 8332 most likely completed a flat correction. Expectations are for a top and sharp decline in a 3rd wave. The specter of a head and shoulders top reinforces the bearish bias.

Published in Forex News
Monday, 29 November 2010 03:09

GBPUSD: Sellers Clear Key Channel Support

Contributed By: DailyFx


Strategy: Pending Short

GBPUSD has taken out at the bottom of a falling channel set from the swing high set earlier this month to stall ahead of support at 1.5561, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the 9/1-11/4 advance. Risk/reward considerations make it unattractive to enter short from here with the pair so close to a support level and we will look for a corrective rebound into the 1.5661-1.5703 region for selling opportunities.

Published in Forex News
Monday, 29 November 2010 03:09

USDCAD: Entry Elusive as Prices Edge Higher

Contributed By: DailyFx


Strategy: Flat

USDCAD has edged higher having established a double bottom just below the parity figure, with prices stalling near the middle of a downward-sloping channel in place since late May. Risk-reward considerations make any entry at current levels unattractive and we will remain on the sidelines for the time being.

Published in Forex News
Monday, 29 November 2010 03:09

AUDUSD: Chart Setup Hints Bearish Breakout

Contributed By: DailyFx


Strategy: Pending Short

AUDUSD is on pace to confirm a bearish Head and Shoulders top chart setup after prices cleared a rising trend line set from early June, with final confirmation to be seen on a conclusive break below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 8/25-11/5 advance. Confirmation of the breakdown would expose a measured target at the 0.91 figure. We will be on the look-out for selling opportunities in the days ahead.

Published in Forex News

Contributed By: DailyFx

 The Australian Dollar is up slightly after Building Approvals for the month of October rose an impressive 9.3% month-over-month, well ahead of the 1.4% consensus estimate. The gains more than reversed September’s 5.3% decline, and allowed approvals to rise above the year ago level by 1.2%.

Traders are less focused on Australia’ Current Account Balance deficit for the third quarter, which came in wider than anticipated at -7830 million versus the -6600 consensus. The deficit remains high relative to recent years as foreign capital flows into the country seeking higher yields.

Meanwhile, Private Sector Credit for October rose 0.1% month-over-month, below the 0.2% expectation. That is the equivalent of a 3.3% year-over-year increase.

Published in Forex News

Contributed By: DailyFx

 The Japanese Yen is little changed after several mixed economic data points were released. The most important is the Jobless Rate for October, which came in at 5.1% up from 5% in September and above the 5% expectation. Japanese unemployment remains relatively elevated as the economy struggles with anemic growth and crippling deflation. For context, the unemployment rate fell to a low of 3.6% in 2007 before spiking to 5.6% in 2009- a modern day record.

In contrast to the weaker-than-expected employment figure, Japanese Industrial Production was a positive surprise, falling only 1.8% month-over-month in October versus the 3.2% decline that was expected. On a year-over-year basis, industrial production was up 4.5%, besting the 3.1% consensus estimate. That being said, industrial production in Japan has fallen for five straight months, suggesting that strength in the Yen may have had a negative impact on the economy.

Finally, Overall Household Spending fell 0.4% year-over-year in October. That was down from the unchanged reading in September.

Published in Forex News

Contributed By: DailyFx

 U.S. Session Key Developments

* Amazon.com Climbs on Cyber Monday
* European Debt Concerns Continue to Hold Market Back

Markets Close Lower As Investors Worry About Irish Bailout

U.S. Markets closed lower to start the week as investors grew concerned about the potential effectiveness of the 112.61 billion dollar Irish bailout. Many are concerned that the amount might not be enough to contain the Euro-zone debt crisis and fear that there may be a massive contagion throughout western economies. The Dow was initially down over 160 points, but has managed to gain ground at the close of the session. The cost of insuring debt of Portugal and Spain against default continued to rise. Furthermore, many are concerned that European efforts to cut deficits may end up causing even larger unemployment.. Investors bought the dollar for safety as the Euro fell on Monday. Demand for Treasurys also rose, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down to 2.82 percent.

DJIA 30 / 11,052.49 / -39.51 / -0.36%

The DJIA closed lower as the majority of sectors closed in the red to start off the week. American Express rose 2.2 percent, which helped the DJIA regain some early losses. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co. also gained 1.7 and 1.2 percent, respectively late in the trading session. However, the technology and consumer sectors did not perform as well on Cyber Monday. HP, Home Depot, Cisco Systems, and Walt Disney all experienced significant declines throughout the session.

S&P 500 / 1,187.77 / -1.63 / -0.14%

The S&P 500 gained back some ground after experiencing a substantial decline early in the session. Among stocks in focus, online retailer Amazon.com surged nearly 2 percent on optimism for Cyber Monday sales, after the Black Friday shopping weekend seemed to be positive. The National Retail Federation survey predicts that 106.9 million shoppers are expected to hit retailers’ websites Monday, up 11 percent from last year. However, most other retail stocks, including Nordstrom, Best buy, and Macy’s, fell over 2 percent.

NASDAQ / 2,525.22 / -9.34 / -0.37%

The NASDAQ experienced the largest decline among the 3 major US benchmark indexes as technology stocks weighed down the index. Hewlett Packard closed off 1.5 percent, while Cisco Systems dropped nearly 1 percent. Cyber Monday was not able to boost technology shares higher as European debt concerns weighed down any optimism among investors.

Published in Forex News

Contributed By: DailyFx

 Europe Session Key Developments

* The cost of Insuring Irish Debt Increases
* 18 of the 18 Western European Benchmark Indexes Close Lower

Investors are Not Convinced Irish Bailout Will Work

European markets closed lower as an Irish bailout fails to reassure investors that European sovereign debt is under control. Markets fell to six week lows at the end of the trading session. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 1.3 percent after having briefly risen earlier in the morning. The European benchmark gauge declined for three straight weeks amid concern of the high debt levels of Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Spain, and many other European nations. Many investors fear that the European debt is not only a problem of specific countries, but it could potentially cause a contagion that affects the entire western financial system. Overall, national benchmark indexes declined in 18 of 18 western European countries.

FTSE 100 / 5,550.95 / -117.75 / -2.08%

10 out of 10 sectors in the FTSE 100 closed in lower at the end of the trading session on Monday as an increase in the cost of insuring the debt of Iberian countries outweighed an 85 billion Euro aid package for Ireland. Resolution Ltd. fell 3.1 percent after JPMorgan Chase & Co. initiated coverage of the firm with an “underweight” rating. Allied Irish Banks Plc and Bank of Ireland Plc surged in Ireland as Gatmore Group and Henderson Group both experienced over 2 percent advances. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc added 1 percent after dropping 5.3 percent on November 26. Lloyds Banking Group Plc sank 1.5 percent as the company gained back as much as 3 percent.

CAC 40 / 3,636.96 / -91.69 / -2.46%

The CAC 40 fell over 2 percent amid concern over the debt of European nations. Credit Agricole SA retrated 1.5 percent, its third straight decline after Consob will examine the company’s holdings in Italy’s Premafin Finanziaria SpA. The French bank help shares in Premafin on behalf of 10 companies based in tax havens. Hermes International SCA climbed 1.8 percent, its second straight day of gains. The luxury-goods company’s family shareholders will meet on December 3 to discuss how the founding families can maintain control.

DAX 6,697.97 / -151.01 / -2.20%

The benchmark DAX fell as investors grew pessimistic about debt concerns throughout the continent. Bayerische Motoren Wrke AG and Daimler AG, the world’s largest makers of luxury cars, led the entire industry lower. MAN SE and Thyssenkrupp AG each lost more than 3 percent. Phoenix Solar AG gained after UBS AG recommended buying the shares.

IBEX 35 / 9324.70 / -222.50 / -2.33%

The IBEX 35 dropped as Financials led the broad based decline at the start of the week. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA fell for a second day, losing 4.3 percent, as the cost of insuring the debt of Iberian countries rose to record high levels after investors grew cautious because of Irish debt. Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologica SA fell for the first time in three days, declining 0.5 percent to 5.19 Euros. The company announced it is close to making a plant in northern Spain, after winning fewer orders than expected in the region, Europa Press reported.

S&P/MIB / 19,986.42 / -516.68 / -2.52%

Italian equities experienced the largest percentage decline among the 5 major western European benchmark indexes. Ansaldo STS SpA declined for the first day in four, losing 1.7 percent after CA Cheuvreux reiterated an “underperform” rating on the stock. Autogrill SpA advanced 1.4 percent as Deutsche Bank Ag initiated coverage of the company with a “buy” rating. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA fell 0.8 percent as the cost of insuring the debt of Iberian countries rose.

Published in Forex News

Contributed By: DailyFx


The New Zealand Dollar rose slightly after the National Bank released the November figures for Business Confidence. The survey yielded a 33.2 value for the month, up significantly from 23.7 in October. Historically, a positive number has been a rare occurrence, but since the middle of 2009, the figure has remained well inside positive territory.

The NBNZ survey of Business Confidence is based on the responses from 1500 small to medium sized businesses and reflects anticipated business conditions over the next twelve months. The percentage of firms expecting deterioration in business conditions is subtracted from the percentage of firms expecting an improvement. A higher number is thus indicative of rising business confidence.

Despite, the minor uptick in the Kiwi, the currency remains lower on general risk aversion and diminishing interest rate expectations. NZD/USD has managed to bounce off daily chart support just under 0.7450.

Published in Forex News
Thursday, 25 November 2010 03:15

Markets Close Higher Amid Upbeat Economic Data

Contributed By: DailyFx

 U.S. Session Key Developments

* Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Outpaces Expectations
* American’s Personal Income Grows at Faster Pace

Markets Close Higher Amid Upbeat Economic Data

U.S. Markets closed higher on the back of retail stocks ahead of black Friday and the upcoming holiday season. Markets today erased almost all of Tuesday’s sharp declines as the latest economic data painted an improving picture for US growth. Today’s market gains were led by consumer discretionary and technology stocks, after the latest data showed consumers are beginning to become more upbeat.

The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index’s rose to 71.6 in November, substantially outpacing expectations. The consumer sentiment numbers came shortly after data showed the labor market is slowly recovering, as the number of US workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell by more than expected last week to the lowest levels since July 2008. Also, Americans’ personal income grew at a faster pace than they have for much of the year and consumer spending expanded. However, orders for durable goods marked the sharpest drop in almost two years, and new home sales fell for the fourth time in the last six months.

DJIA 30 / 11,187.28 / +150.91 / +1.37%

The DJIA closed higher as 9 out of 10 sectors closed in the green. The benchmark gauge was led higher by the Industrial and basic material sector with 2.12 and 1.96 percent gains, respectively. The Dow was higher today after upbeat economic reports and easing European sovereign debt concerns as Ireland is close to finalizing a bailout. Amazon jumped to a fresh all-time high, soaring 5.4 percent ahead of the upcoming holiday.

S&P 500 / 1,198.35 / +17.62 / +1.49%

The S&P 500 gained back some ground after experiencing a substantial decline early in the week. Jewlery retailer Tiffany added to the enthusiasm over retail spending, jumping 5 percent after reporting a 27 percent increase in earnings. Coach added 3.8 percent, and Polo Ralph Lauren gained 2.8 percent. UBS traded relatively flat after the trustee recovering money for victims of Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme accused UBS of actively participating in the fraud and sought 2 billion dollars from the bank.

NASDAQ / 2,543.12 / +48.17 / +1.93%

The NASDAQ experienced the largest gain among the three major US benchmark gauges. Oracle jumped 2.2 percent after a jury ruled that German software group SAP must pay the company $1.3 billion because of intellectual-property theft. SAP was off 1.2 percent as a result of the verdict.

Published in Forex News
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