Contributed By: DailyFx
NZD/USD:We are finally starting to see some form of a top, with the multi-month gains stalling out just shy of critical psychological barriers by 0.8000 and reversing course. From here, there is plenty of room for additional weakness and we see scope for declines back towards 0.7400 over the coming sessions. Intraday rallies should be well capped ahead of 0.7900, while a close below 0.7700 should accelerate.
Contributed By: DailyFx
Price action in the early week has been USD positive thus far, with most of the major currencies marginally extending declines against the Greenback on the back of weaker risk appetite, and ongoing concerns over Eurozone sovereign debt issues. The latest headlines have Germany pushing Ireland to accept a bail-out package and help avoid contagion to Portugal and Spain, and this will be a critical theme over the coming sessions.
Relative Performance Versus USD Monday (As of 10:10GMT)
On the strategy side, we have gone ahead and booked 200 points profit on half of our long Eur/Aud position from 1.3725 at 1.3925. The trade has shown good follow through and we are encouraged with the prospects for additional upside over the coming days. Still, at this point, we have gone ahead and also mitigated risk after trailing our stop-loss on the remaining half of the position to break-even at 1.3725.
Elsewhere, it seems that economic data releases have failed to materially factor into price action, with a much better than expected New Zealand retail sales, solid Japanese GDP, and a better Eurozone trade balance, all taking a backseat to broader currency flows. Also out have been a weaker UK Rightmove house prices, disappointing Aussie new motor vehicle sales, and softer Swiss producer and import prices.
The US Dollar has been well bid over the past several days, with the single currency finding a renewed bid tone following the latest decision by the Fed to implement another round of QE. Market participants seem to be taking a less dovish outlook on the Fed, with the sense that the Fed is becoming very sensitive to the longer-term risks of ultra-accommodative policy and will be far less inclined to take additional easing measures from here on. Fed Lacker was out on the wires early Monday, and has contributed further to the buck’s bid tone after saying that he thought that the risks to QE2 outweighed the benefits.
While most of the setbacks in the major currencies have been marginal at this point, the Yen stands out, with the currency continuing to extend declines to fresh multi-day lows against the buck. Last week, the break back above 82.00 officially took the short-term pressure off of the downside with the trigger of a double bottom that projects additional gains towards 84.00 over the coming sessions, before considering the possibility for a bearish resumption.
Looking ahead, US retail sales (0.7% expected) and empire manufacturing (14.0 expected) are due at 13:30GMT, followed by business inventories (0.6% expected) at 15:00GMT. On the official circuit, EU Juncker speaks on the topic of European banks at 17:00GMT. US equity futures and gold prices are tracking marginally higher, while oil is better bid, up by some 0.50%.
EUR/USD:The market has finally rolled over quite convincingly, with critical short-term support by 1.3695 now easily exceeded to suggest that a major lower top could be in the process of carving out by 1.4285. We had initially projected a test of longer-term falling resistance off of the record highs by 1.4500, but 1.4285 could very well be it, with setbacks now seen accelerating to the downside back towards 1.3000 over the coming days. Look for the latest weekly close below 1.3700 to help strengthen the bearish case. From here, any rallies should now be well capped ahead of 1.3900, where the 10-Day SMA has just crossed below the 20-Day SMA. Next major downside target doesn’t come in until 1.3335 in the form of previous resistance now turned support.
USD/JPY:There is finally some evidence of a potential base with the market carving out a short-term double bottom last Wednesday. The break back above 82.00 neckline resistance triggers the formation and potentially exposes gains towards 84.00 over the coming sessions. The 10-Day SMA has just crossed up above the 20-Day SMA, and this further strengthens the case for additional upside over the short-term. Look for any setbacks to be well supported for now ahead of 81.25, while above 82.80 accelerates.
GBP/USD:The market has come back under pressure since capping out by 1.6300, and it looks as though deeper setbacks are in the cards over the coming days, with a fresh lower top sought out by 1.6185. Look for a close back below key support at 1.5950 to force an official shift in the short-term structure and accelerate declines back towards 1.5650 over the coming sessions. Ultimately, only back above 1.6300 negates and gives reason for pause.
USD/CHF: We contend that the market is in the process of carving a material base by 0.9460, and any setbacks should be very well supported in favor of a sustained recovery. A fresh higher low is now sought out by 0.9550 to be confirmed on a break back above 0.9975 over the coming sessions. Above 0.9975 will accelerate gains and open the next major upside extension towards 1.0200 further up.
A thin day so far for flows with intraday spec types bidding on dips in Aud/Usd and hedge funds paring down long positions in Eur/Usd. Buy orders from a model name and importer provide support in Usd/Cad with leverage accounts on the offer.
Contributed By: DailyFx
Europe Session Key Developments
* Banks and Automobiles Led the Europe Stoxx 600 Lower
* German DAX Retreats from 2 Year High
European Stocks Closed Lower Amid Renewed Debt Concerns
European markets closed in negative territory at the end of the trading session on Wednesday amid renewed debt concerns. Banks fell throughout the day as the extra yield investors demanded to hold Irish government bonds compared to German bonds widened to a record high. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 dropped over half of one percent. The gauge has climbed 17 percent since May as company earnings topped estimates and the US Federal Reserve unveiled substantial monetary stimulus. Many investors are concerned that printing money will not be the ultimate solution to solving the tough economic problems plaguing countries throughout the globe. Overall, national benchmark indexes fell in all 18 western European markets.
FTSE 100 / 5,816.94 / -58.25 / -0.99%
The British benchmark gauge declined today as 9 out of 10 sectors closed in the red. UniCredit fell 4.8 percent to 1.73 Euros, the largest drop since June. The bank announced that third quarter profit declined 15 percent after lower trading income outweighed a drop in bad-loan provisions. The overall earnings’ results significantly underperformed expectations. BHP Billiton dropped 2.7 percent as copper, nickel, tin and zinc fell in London trading. Scottish & Southern Electricity Plc climbed 3.7 percent as the company announced earnings that beat estimates.
CAC 40 / 3,888.45 / -57.26 / -1.45%
All 10 sectors in the CAC 40 closed lower at the end of the day. Bouygues SA advanced 1.5 percent as the construction, television and telecommunications company said nine month revenue fell from a year earlier. Colas SA declined 2.8 percent as the organization announced third quarter sales that beat expectations. Meetic SA plunged 12 percent after announcing sales that advanced 23 percent. Dannone SA fell 1.3 percent after the owner of the Evian and Volvic bottled-water brands is talking with Japanese beverage makers about sale of parts or all of its water business.
DAX / 6,719.84 / -67.97 / -1.00%
The German index retreated from two year highs as the banking and automobile sectors led the broad based declines. Deutsche Bank AG fell 2.3 percent, its first drop in five days. Roth & Rau AG sank 11 percent after reporting a decline in nin-month earnings before interest and taxes. Henkel jumped 9.8 percent, climbing the most in the DAX Index, as the maker of glues increased its forecast for full-year profit and announced net income that substantially outpaced analysts’ consensus estimates. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Daimler AG lost 2.1 percent to 53.75 Euros and 1.7 percent to 49.18 Euros, respectively. European carmakers declined 2 percent today, the worst performance among all industry groups.
IBEX 35 10,235.40 -174.40 -1.68%
The Madrid benchmark index declined again today, making today’s loss the third fall in four days. Banco Santander SA slid 2.9 percent after Italy’s UniCredit SpA announced that third quarter profit declined 15 percent, substantially missing expectations. Coporacion Financiera Alba SA fell 2.7 percent, snapping four days of gains. The investment company was cut to “underweight” from “overweight” at Mirabaud Finanzas by equity analyst Hector Martinez. Indra Sistemas SA rose for a second day, gaining 1.1 percent as the company announced better than expected sales forecasts.
S&P/MIB / 21,671.63 / -476.80 / -2.15%
The Italian index experienced the steepest decline among the 5 major European benchmark indexes. Autogrill SpA rose 0.9 percent to 9.84 Euros. The world’s largest manager of airport and highway restaurants said third quarter profit grew 33 percent amid a recovery in the travel industry. Banca Popolare di Milano Scrl fell 3.3 percent to 3.14 Euros. The Milan-based cooperative bank announced third-quarter profit dropped 34 percent on the back of lower revenues. Sabaf SpA fell 2.9 percent. The maker of components for gas appliances was downgraded to “hold” from “accumulate” at Banca Akros.
Contributed By: DailyFx
The CADJPY extended yesterday’s advance during the overnight trade to reach an intraday high of 81.597. Indeed, I am long from 80.86, and will look to maintain my position as technical indicators continue to point to further gains. The parabolic SAR signaled for gains on November 5th, and has yet to reverse course, while the downside risks remain capped by the 10-day SMA. On a fundamental basis, Japan continues to fight deflation. At the same time, households face a weak labor market, and employment conditions are likely to remain under pressure as domestic demand and a slow global recovery adds weight onto hiring. On the other hand, full time positions in Canada continue to gather momentum as employers become more optimistic about growth. All in all, remain long CADJPY, with a soft target of 82.00 and a stop at 80.00. Nonetheless, I am still long the GBPCHF and the GBPJPY. Indeed, I am currently in the money as the BoE said that the recovery will continue, while also noting that inflation will remain above target through 2011.
Meanwhile, I will look to enter into a short EURCAD on a break and close below the 50-day moving average. This level is of particular importance in that it has served as a line of support since September 17th. The euro has been coming under pressure recently as debt concerns resurface. In the coming months, governments in the bloc will implement tough austerity measures, which will weight on growth. Thus, entering a short position upon confirmation may lead to a potential long term short EURCAD trade. Nevertheless, currency traders will place the AUDNZD in the spotlight ahead of the Australian employment report. The RBA recently hiked rates twenty five basis points to 4.75 percent. In turn, a dismal labor force report will lower interest rates expectations, and may lead the AUDNZD to test 1.2750. I may look to trade the event and hold onto the position for a couple of days as downside risks remain.
Contributed By: DailyFx
I've been a bit discouraged after getting stopped out of EURUSD more than once, only to see the pair see a 500-point reversal in under a week. But I'm increasingly confident that this is the EURUSD I've been calling for, as FX Options Sentiment clearly shows many are gearing up for further losses. I'd like to go short EURUSD from 1.3800, stop on an hourly close above 1.3972
Contributed By: DailyFx
North American Commodity Update
Commodities - Energy
A Sixth Consecutive Rally for US Oil Ushers in a Notable Two-Year High
Crude Oil (LS Nymex) - $86.72 // -$0.34 // -0.39%
Shortly after setting an unconvincing two-year high above $87 through Monday’s close, US oil would show its reservations in accelerating its recent upswing into the next phase of a major bull trend. Following Monday’s ‘hanging man’ pattern (a technical pattern that suggests conviction is stalling but a reversal will develop immediately), this past session’s performance would mark the first actual decline for the market in seven days. Notably, this negative close would break the longest series of advances since April. On the other hand, the 0.4 percent loss was hardly the kind of performance that would threaten a meaningful reversal. Instead, it is perhaps more accurate to suggest that crude has opened this week with the intention of establishing congestion. That said, consolidation near the extreme of a multi-year range is far from a stable scenario. This market remains highly prone to breakouts. The question remains whether the resultant drive will be bullish for trend continuation or bearish for a reversal.
Looking to our fundamental Doppler, there are two fronts which could decide the next trend for oil: macroeconomic concerns or risk appetite trends. Through traditional supply-and-demand channels, we see that the docket was relatively light these past 24 hours and it will remain so through the rest of the week. Through Tuesday’s session, the most meaningful data to clarify energy consumption was the UK industrial production and US small business confidence figures. British manufacturing activity rose for a fifth month to its highest overall level in nearly two years. Perhaps a little more indirect, but far more influential for underlying economic activity; sentiment amongst small US business (responsible for the greatest segment of job creation in the United States) rose to its second highest level in two-years with a notable improvement in economic expectations, an increase in sales expectations and positive reading in hiring plans. Altogether, this data is too nuanced to elicit a dramatic reaction from energy traders. And, with US trade figures and a Bank of England quarterly inflation report standing as top even risk tomorrow; there is only a modest threat of seeing volatility developing through calendar events.
In the absence of a fundamental catalyst, risk appetite trends will prevail. Looking at the benchmark S&P 500 Tuesday, there is evidence that the bull run of the past two months is starting to stagger under its own weight. On this front, there is a ready-made list of concerns for traders to jump on as long as sentiment is already under pressure. Recently, the concern has turned from the positive influences of stimulus to the negative implications of revived European financial troubles. What’s more, the 7.4 million barrel drop in the API crude inventory report (biggest since September 2008) and the six-week low in US gasoline demand read in the MasterCard gives us something to think about.
Crude Futures Chart (Daily)
Commodities - Metals
Panicked Silver Selling on Margin Changes Spills Over to Gold
Spot Gold - $1,392.90 // -$16.65 // -1.18%
Though not as consistent as its run this past Thursday, gold’s activity level over the previous active session was exceptionally high. Through the early morning hours of the trading day Tuesday, the precious metal was steadily climbing to fresh record highs. However, not long after developing temporary congestion at an intraday high of $1,424.60; the market would see an explosion in activity price action with a deep reversal that pulled the market as far down as 2.9 percent or $41.80. On a close-by-close basis, this was the largest decline since October 21st; but on an intraday basis, it was the biggest decline the market has see in months.
While it would be easy to ascribe responsibility for the metal’s tumble to a variety of fundamental drivers; the true accelerate wouldn’t come through the normal channels of supply-and-demand concerns or even through traditional risk appetite schema. Instead, gold traders would respond to a structural market change: a change in margin requirements to trade silver on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This may seem an indirect driver; but the aim of this change is significant enough to raise concern that policy officials are willing and ready to curb unruly speculative drives in order to stabilize an important commodity market. This threat was significant enough to spread through the precious and industrial metals – and even spill over to the S&P 500 and FX markets. This kind of market-wide response to an otherwise periphery market gives us some sense of just how influential speculative interests are in this market.
For more in-depth fundamental concerns, a withdrawal of speculative participation could be exacerbated by growing concerns surrounding European financial conditions. Greek and Portuguese bond yields hit a fresh record high Tuesday as concerns over the economic impact of deficit cutting were increased. That said, fear in financial shocks and another destabilized currency actually works in gold’s favor as an alternative asset. That said, the ICE’s announcement that it would accept gold holdings as collateral for initial margin on energy and CDS trades as well as comments by a PBoC advisor that the dollar’s positive as a reserve currency certainly works in gold’s favor. However, as some point, alternative asset appeal will be offset by speculative fears.
For trading activity, volume on the December Comex futures contract surged 68 percent over Monday’s turnover to a record 296,485 contracts. At the same time, the two-year contango has widened a third day to $29 – a sharp increase in premium.
Spot Silver - $26.92 // -$0.83 // -2.97
Silver was arguably the most volatile market on the day Tuesday. The 3 percent tumble was the biggest on a close basis since October 21st; but the tumble from the intraday high of $29.36 to its low would end up measuring 9.7 percent. The instigation for this remarkable plunge was an announcement by the CME that it would raise margin to trade the metal by 30 percent to $6,500 per contract – supposedly to curb distorting speculative activity. On this price move volume surged 91 percent to a record high.
Spot Gold Chart (Daily)
Contributed By: DailyFx
China’s Trade Balance surplus grew to $27.15 billion in October, above both the $25 billion expectation and the $16.88 billion in September. The number came out higher than anticipated due to the import side of the equation; China’s Imports in October rose 25.3%, below the 28.3% expectation. Exports, on the other hand, rose 22.9% from a year ago, close to the 23% analyst consensus. These figures will do little to dampen the frustration of China’s trading partners, and more calls for China to let the value of its currency rise are likely. Indeed, ahead of the G-20 meeting we see that China has allowed the Yuan rise to the highest level since 1993.
Contributed By: DailyFx
OVERVIEW – Economic developments in the region are becoming less and less influential in terms of their impact on price action in the local currencies, with the direction in the markets highly contingent on the overall direction in the US Dollar. The FX markets have broken away from traditional correlations of risk on and risk off, with the dominant theme now one of US Dollar sentiment. Should the US Dollar manage to mount a significant recovery, then we would expect to see the local currencies come under pressure across the board. However, should the US Dollar continue to slide, then we foresee additional upside in the Nordics, with both the NOK and SEK outperforming all of the major currencies. We would however suggest that it may be worth looking at being long the NOK against the SEK at this point, with the NOK/SEK cross looking quite stretched and due for a material bounce. There are no key economic releases slated for Monday.
Eur/Sek Although the overriding trend is still intensely bearish, the market looks to have finally found some form of a base by 9.09 after triggering an inverse head & shoulders pattern. From here, look for additional upside back towards a measured move objective by 9.50 over the coming days. Ultimately, only back below 9.13 would delay and give reason for concern.
Eur/Nok Overall price action remains quite choppy with the market confined to a well defined range over the past several weeks between 7.80 and 8.20. The latest rally attempts have once again stalled out just over the 8.20 range resistance, and the risks from here are for range trade resumption back towards the 7.80 area over the coming sessions. Only a close back above 8.20 would negate outlook.
Usd/Sek The latest rally attempts have once again stalled out and any hopes for the formation of a material base by 6.50 are looking less and less likely. The underlying trend remains intensely bearish and a close below 6.50 will solidify this fact and open the door for the next major downside extension. At this point, only a break back above 6.83 would negate outlook and give reason for pause.
Usd/Nok The latest rally attempts have once again stalled out and any hopes for the formation of a material base by 5.70 are looking less and less likely. The underlying trend remains intensely bearish and a break below 5.70 will solidify this fact and open the door for the next major downside extension. At this point, only a break back above 5.96 would negate outlook and give reason for pause.
Gbp/Nok Overall price action remains quite choppy with the latest sharp sell-off being very well supported ahead of psychological barriers by the 9 handle. From here, we will use the 9.50 level as a gauge for directional bias. While the market holds below, we would expect to see downside pressures persist, but back above will relieve downside pressure and potentially open some fresh upside back towards the 10.00 handle.
Nok/Jpy Remains confined to a multi-day range broadly defined between 13.25 and 14.50. The market has most recently stalled out by the range highs, and as such, the preferred strategy is to look to sell in favor of a continuation of the prevailing range trade. Ultimately, a close back above 14.50 would be required to negate.
Contributed By: DailyFx
The dollar index notched up its best day of gains since mid-October and its second best day of gains in four months as NFPs on Friday came in much better than expected. I had considered the eventualities of a stronger NFP reading Friday and how investors would react considering the open-ended language from the Fed, which allows them to slow bond-purchases as they deem necessary. Following a better than expected NFP reading many players will now be wary of the Fed doing exactly that (slowing their purchases) as the economy improves, which boosted the dollar late last week and has allowed the index to start the week on the front foot.
After this strong reading we have noticed a material shift of focus back onto forgotten topics, like Ireland and Portugal, which have been cited over-night has part of the catalyst for sharp euro declines. We find this to be a remarkable coincidence that over the same period that NFPs knock QE2 prospects all of a sudden traders are interested in what is taking place in Europe once again. Therefore, we finally see the possibility of the dollar forming a material base, something we have been looking for over the last week, as focus shifts away from the dollar and back to the euro which is likely to come under pressure since its recent rise is not representative of the underlying fundamentals in the euro-region.
Technically, the index may be in the process of carving out a double-bottom with a break and close back above 77.00 confirming the initial forming of a bottom. We will then look for a break out of recent trend highs above 78.30 which should accelerate gains in the index back toward the psychologically important 80.00 level.
One might regard forex as being somewhat simple: you just need to know which pair to trade, when to get in, and when to get out. (An exception to this is with carry trading, where you also need to pay attention to a few other factors). Here we discuss some of the major signals for knowing when to exit a trade.
The basic set of tools, provided for free by most forex brokers, are almost identical to the entry signals. With entry, you look for a trend and jump in just before it starts. With exits, you simply look for the end of a trend or the beginning of a new one, and jump out before it’s too late.
The big difference is that you are not usually looking for a new trend. By the time you can identify that a new trend has begun and is measurably significant, it’s already too late—you’re losing money. Instead, you should exit the market as soon as it is clear that the trend you bought on has ended. Trend following is just one of several ways to become successful in the forex market.
So you could start with crossovers in the moving average. If you used that to identify an uptrend, now you’re looking for a reversal with crossover from above. But hopefully you won’t get that far. Instead, you should watch the percentage of change in the short term moving average. If the short term average remains unchanged over a period of time, the trend has probably ended.
Of course, this means that the average directional index (ADX) or moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) both become more significant for you. Look for stabilization or stagnation in these indicators as a signal for the end of a trend. Some of the most helpful forex exit signals are the momentum indicators such as TRIX, smoothed rate of change, or relative strength.
It is also easy to draw a trend line based on Fibonacci pivot points. When prices begin to fall below the original trend line and you see a new pattern of pivot points, the trend has ended. Look for resistance or support that offers any type of pattern. You can also rely on exponential moving average (200 EMA). The problem here is that it is often hard to know if you are dealing with a new trend or just with retracement. This is where price candles can be helpful in some cases. Since the end of a trend is often more analytically complex than the beginning, knowing your analysis well is very important.
News shocks are generally a bad way to make exit decisions, since your response will be too late, anyway. However, if you do have reason to suspect an event and you are more accurate than the market, this might be useful. Generally, your stop loss order will kick in before you can.
And this is where the most important exit signal comes in. You should always have stop-losses in place for every trade you make. Quite simply, you’ve found an exit signal when your stop-loss kicks in and ends the trade for you!
This also relates to the biggest value in automated systems: rely on your software to free you from a position before you lose too much. You can set this up in complex ways to help you even with profitable trades. If more traders relied on their own analysis to get them into the market and software as one of several signals to get them out, they would significantly improve their profits.