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Forex Daily News | Forex Articles | Forex Information
Thursday, 09 December 2010 09:26

UFXBank Forex Outlook: Yen Strengthens on GDP Data

USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar traded mixed against the major currencies as Treasury yields surged on speculation an agreement to extend tax cuts will boost the economy, increasing demand for U.S. assets. The NASDAQ increased by 0.41% and the Dow Jones strengthened by 0.12%. Crude oil weakened by 0.5% and closed at $88.28 a barrel. Gold (XAU) weakened by 1.8% and closed at $1383.20 an ounce. Today, initial jobless claims are expected at 430.00K vs. 436.00K previously.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro USD opened and closed the day of Forex trading at the same rate, 1.3248. The main momentum of the EUR/USD during the two months has been bearish, and as long as the pair is trading below 1.3470 levels, a short position is still preferred according to the daily chart. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3243 and with a high of 1.3322. Today, we are expecting the ECB monthly report and the German CPI to remain unchanged at 0.10%.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3309

Resistance

1.3443

1.3470

Support

1.3247

1.3179

1.3056

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound rose against the Dollar after the CBI Industrial Order Expectations came out at -3.00, better than the expected -12.00, a sign the recovery is maintaining momentum into the final quarter of the year. The next resistance of GBP/USD on the daily chart is located at 1.5900, and if the rate breaks above this rate, a long position is preferred. If the rate breaks below the 1.5700 level, the pair could decline to 1.5600 levels. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5668 and with a high of 1.5836. Today, the trade balance is expected at -8.10 B vs. -8.20B prior and the interest rate decision is expected unchanged at 0.50%.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.5816R

Resistance

1.5835

1.5900

Support

1.5664

1.5569

1.5509

Japanese Yen (JPY) –The Yen weakened against the Dollar after Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said that the yen’s recent gains were “one sided” and added that he would be “closely watching” developments in the currency market, which caused investors to be pessimistic on the Yen. But when the market opened in Tokyo last night, the yen rose against the U.S Dollar almost 50 pips after the GDP came out at 1.10%, better than the expected 0.90%.  As long as the USD/JPY is trading above 83.00 levels, a long position is preferred, and the next resistance level is located at 84.40. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.48 and with a high of 84.30. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 83.72

Resistance

84.11

84.40

Support

83.41

83.00

82.33

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian Dollar gained against the greenback and most of the major currencies. The bank of Canada left the interest rate unchanged at 1 percent. The Housing Starts came out at 187.00K better than the expected 172.00K.The resistance level of the USD/CAD on the 1 hour chart is located at 1.0150, and if the price breaks above this level, the momentum will become positive for the US Dollar. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0063 and with a high of 1.0140. Today, no major data is expected.

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0103

Resistance

1.0150

1.0186

1.0275

Support

1.0075

1.0030

1.0000

 

 

 

Published in Forex Articles

USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar rose against most major currencies in Forex trading as Treasury yields surged on speculation that there will be an agreement to extend tax cuts to boost the economy, increasing demand for U.S. assets. The NASDAQ increased by 0.14% and the Dow Jones weakened by 0.03%. Crude oil weakened by 0.8% and closed at $88.69 a barrel. Gold (XAU) weakened by 0.5% and closed at $1409 an ounce. No economic data is expected today.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro weakened against the Dollar on speculation that the region’s financial crisis won’t be solved by Ireland’s parliament passing austerity measures required for an 85 billion euro aid package. The main momentum of the EUR/USD during these two months is bearish, as long as it’s trading below the 1.3500 level, a short position is preferred. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3253 and with a high of 1.3400. Today, German Industrial Production is expected to become positive, from -0.80% to 1.0%.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3225

Resistance

1.3335

1.3420

Support

1.3200

1.3085

1.2970

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound rose against the Dollar after U.K. manufacturing expanded twice as much as economists had forecast in October (0.6% vs. 0.4% forecast vs. 0.2% prior), a sign that the recovery is maintaining momentum into the final quarter of the year. The next resistance for the GBP/USD on the four hour chart is located at 1.5825, and if the rate breaks above this rate, a long position is preferred. If the rate breaks below the 1.5700 levels, the pair could decline to 1.5600 levels. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5704 and with a high of 1.5822. Today, CBI Industrial Order Expectations is expected at -12 vs. -15 prior.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.5729

Resistance

1.5785

1.5820

Support

1.5700

1.5655

1.5580

Japanese Yen (JPY) –The Yen weakened against the Dollar after Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said that the yen’s recent gains were “one sided” and added that he would be “closely watching” developments in the currency market, which causes investors to be pessimistic on the Yen. As long as the USD/JPY is trading above 83.00 levels, a long position is preferred and the next resistance level is located at 84.40. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.34 and with a high of 83.66. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 83.84

Resistance

84.00

84.40

Support

83.45

83.00

82.50

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian Dollar slid from near its strongest level in more than three weeks versus the Dollar after commodities including crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, reversed gains at the end of the US session. Also, the Canadian fell as the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady at 1 percent for a second straight meeting. The resistance level of the USD/CAD on the four hour chart is located at 1.0150, and if the price breaks above this level, the momentum will become a positive for the US Dollar. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0012 and with a high of 1.0126. Today, Housing Starts are expected to increase from 168K to 172K.

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0122

Resistance

1.0150

1.0215

1.0275

Support

1.0080

1.0030

1.0000

 

 

 

Published in Forex Articles

USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar strengthened versus the other major currencies in Forex trading after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank may boost purchases of U.S. debt, which then succeeded to support a stronger Dollar. The NASDAQ increased by 0.13% and the Dow Jones decreased by 0.17%. Crude oil rose by 0.2% and closed at $89.38 a barrel, the highest price in two years. Gold (XAU) strengthened to a new historic record, rising by 0.7% and closed at $1422.40 an ounce. No major economic data is expected today.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro fell against most major currencies as European officials showed divisions about how to contain the sovereign debt crisis, damping appetite for the region’s currency. The main support of the EUR/USD on the daily chart is 1.3250, and if the price breaks below this level, the Euro could fall below 1.3200 levels. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3246 and with a high of 1.3421. Today, German Factory Orders are expected to become positive, from -4.00% to 1.90%.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3342

Resistance

1.3381

1.3425

Support

1.3285

1.3245

1.3200

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound weakened versus the Dollar as concerns over the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone helped in drifting the pound and other higher risk currencies trading against the Dollar. The next resistance for GBP/USD on the daily chart is located at 1.5800, and if the rate breaks above this rate, a long position is preferred. The support level on the one hour chart is 1.5650. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5655 and with a high of 1.5770. Today, Manufacturing Production is expected to rise from 0.10% to 0.30%.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.5740

Resistance

1.5755

1.5790

Support

1.5700

1.5650

1.5580

Japanese Yen (JPY) –The Yen traded within a very narrow range versus the Dollar after no major news from these areas was released that could influence a big movement on this pair during either the Japanese or US sessions. As long the USD/JPY is trading below the 83.20 level, a short position is preferred. The 20 moving average on the daily chart supports a downwards trend as well. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.56 and with a high of 82.99. No economic data expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 82.74

Resistance

83.00

83.40

83.85

Support

82.35

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian Dollar weakened against the US Dollar after Canadian Building Permits came out at -6.5% vs. the -2.9% forecast in October. This led investors to sell the Canadian currency during the session. The support level of the USD/CAD on the daily chart is still located at 0.9980, and if the price breaks below this level, the momentum will continue to be negative for the US Dollar. If the price crosses the 1.0120 level, the dollar could rise to the 1.0200 level. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0021 and with a high of 1.0083. Today, BOC Rate Statement and Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain at 1.00%.

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0050

Resistance

1.0080

1.0120

1.0190

Support

1.0030

1.0000

 

 

 

Published in Forex Articles

USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar dropped against most major currencies in Forex trading as U.S. payrolls added less jobs than were forecast last month (35K vs. 143K forecast). This kept unemployment near a 26 year high, coming out at 9.8% vs. 9.6% forecast, and is spurring speculation that the recovery is faltering. The NASDAQ and Dow Jones strengthened by 0.47% and 0.17% respectively. Crude oil rose by 1.4% and closed at $89.20 a barrel, the highest price in two years. Gold (XAU) increased by 1.0%, closing at $1406.20 an ounce. No economic data is expected today.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro rose against the dollar for the first week in a month as the European Central Bank intervened to curb the spread of the sovereign debt crisis, which threatened to engulf the euro zone. Also the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls in US supported a bullish momentum on the EUR/USD. The EUR/USD momentum is bullish as long it’s trading above 1.3250. The next support is located at 1.3300, and the RSI indicator supports a bullish momentum for the Euro. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3183 and with a high of 1.3438. No major economic data is expected today.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3343

Resistance

1.3438

Support

1.3300

1.3200

1.3050

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound gained versus the Dollar after the European Central Bank said it would delay stimulus withdrawal to calm market turmoil as investor appetite grew for higher yielding assets. Moreover, the payrolls data supported a stronger pound as well. The next resistance of GBP/USD on the four hour chart is located at 1.5800. If the price breaks above this rate, a long position is preferred, and the 20 moving average supports an upwards trend. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5581 and with a high of 1.5788. No economic data is expected today.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.5741

Resistance

1.5785

Support

1.5665

1.5550

1.5500

Japanese Yen (JPY) –The Yen gained against the Dollar as a government report showed employers added fewer jobs in November than economists forecast, which drifted investors towards the yen instead of the Dollar. As long as the USD/JPY is trading below the 83.20 level, a short position is preferred. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 82.52 and with a high of 83.84. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 86.35

Resistance

84.40

86.00

88.10

Support

82.50

80.30

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian Dollar fluctuated on Friday despite crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, rallying to a two year high. The addition of mixed data released from Canada such as the Employment Change, which came at 15.2K vs. 20.2K forecast, and the Unemployment Rate that came at 7.6% vs. 7.9% forecast, caused the Canadian currency to be unstable during the session. The support level of the USD/CAD on the daily chart is located at 0.9980, and if the price breaks below this level, the momentum will continue to be negative for the US Dollar. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0003 and with a high of 1.0080. Today, Building Permits are expected to weaken from 15.30% to -2.50%, Ivey PMI is expected at 56.20 vs. 56.70 prior.

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0053

Resistance

1.0080

1.0150

1.0235

Support

1.0020

1.0000

 

 

 

Published in Forex Articles

USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar lost gains versus most of the major currencies in Forex trading after positive macro data in U.S. signaled improvement, as the Pending Home Sales jumped unexpectedly to 10.4% much better than expected -0.7%, hence the investors jumped back to riskier assets. The Unemployment claims came out 436K worse than expected 425K. The Stock Market in U.S. soared as the Dow Jones increased by 0.95% and the NASDAQ gained 1.17%. The Crude Oil jumped upwards in more than 1.4% closing near a fresh record high at 88$ a barrel. The Gold (XAU) almost unchanged closed at 1385$ an ounce. Today, the most important monthly data of NFP are expected at 143k vs. 151k previously. The Unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 9.6%.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro climbed for the second day versus the dollar, supported by risk appetite and strengthening stock and commodity markets. The macro data came out unchanged as expected with Interest rate at 1%, PPI at 0.4% and the GDP at 0.4%. Breaching the resistance level of 1.3260 might extend the gains for the pair. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3060 and with a high of 1.3246. Today, The ECB president will speak and later the retail sales are expected to come out at 0.4% vs. -0.2% previously.

EUR/USD – Last:  1.3200

Resistance

1.3260

1.3300


Support

1.3180

1.3080

1.3040

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound is fluctuating near the critical support level of 1.5550 for the fourth day, attempting to determine the leading trend as it closed with small loss to the dollar. The Construction PMI came out 51.8 better than expected 51.1. Holding above the support level of 1.5550 might push the pair upwards as oversold conditions seen in the pair. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5510 and with a high of 1.5666. Today, the Service PMI is expected unchanged at 53.2.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.5593

Resistance

1.5650

1.5730


Support

1.5550

1.5500

Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen is fluctuating at a tight range of 83.40 - 84.40 for the fifth day, attempting to determine the leading trend as it closed with small gain against the dollar, following other leading currencies. Only breaking the range will light some new trend in the pair, otherwise we will keep seeing it fluctuating between the boundaries. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.47 and with a high of 84.35. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 83.70

Resistance

83.80

84.40

Support

83.40

82.80


Canadian dollar (CAD) – The U.S. Dollar lost gains against Canada's dollar as crude oil and Wall Street soared and investors favored assets linked to economic growth. Breaking the critical support level at 0.9980 might trigger new sell orders and push the pair lower.  Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0023 and with a high of 1.0189. Today, the Employment Change is expected at 20.2k vs. 3k previously. The Unemployment Rate is expected unchanged at 7.9%.

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0139

Resistance

1.0080

1.0140

1.0230

Support

1.0020

0.9980


 

Published in Forex Articles
Thursday, 02 December 2010 08:19

UFXBank Forex Outlook: Dollar Drops on Good Data

USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar lost the positive momentum it had had for the last few days after positive macro data in the U.S. signaled improvement. The ADP Non Farm Employment change came out at 93k, better than the expected 70k, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came out at 56.6, better than an expected 56.4, and therefore investors jumped back to riskier assets. The Stock Market in the U.S. soared as the Dow Jones increased by 2.27% and the NASDAQ gained 2.05%. Crude Oil jumped upwards more than 3%, closing at $86.70 a barrel. Gold (XAU) advanced by 0.2%, closing at $1387 an ounce. Today, Unemployment Claims are expected at 425K vs. 407K previously. Pending Home Sales are expected at -0.7% vs. -1.8% previously.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro rallied versus the dollar for the first time in 4 days of Forex trading on speculation that the ECB might put efforts to restrain the spread of the euro zone's debt crisis. German Retail Sales came out at 2.3%, better than the expected 1.3%. Holding above the support level of 1.3040 turns the momentum positive for the pair. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2970 and with a high of 1.3180. Today, The PPI is expected unchanged at 0.3%. The GDP is expected unchanged at 0.4%. The Minimum Bid Rate is expected unchanged at 1%.

EUR/USD – Last:  1.3111

Resistance

1.3180

1.3260

1.3300

Support

1.3080

1.3040

1.2970

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound gained versus the dollar after Wall Street jumped to fresh monthly highs on renewed signs of strength in the US economy and returned risk appetite back in the markets. The Nationwide HPI came out unchanged as expected at -0.3%. The Manufacturing PMI came out at 58, better than the expected 54.8. Holding above the support level of 1.5550 might push the pair upwards as oversold conditions are seen in the pair. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5546 and with a high of 1.5647. Today, the Construction PMI is expected at 51.3 vs. 51.6 previously.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.5609

Resistance

1.5640

1.5730


Support

1.5550

1.5500

Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen was among the only currencies that weakened against the dollar after the FED’s speech about steps that were taken in order to stabilize the markets during the crisis. The Capital Spending came out at 5%, worse than the expected 6.1%. Breaching the 84.40 level might push the pair upwards. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.37 and with a high of 84.38. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 84.10

Resistance

83.80

84.40

Support

83.40

82.80


Canadian dollar (CAD) – The U.S. Dollar lost gains against Canada's dollar as investors moved towards riskier assets, including currencies related to commodities, on speculations raised by the ECB's calls for support in stopping the spread of the regional debt crisis. Holding below the 1.0240 resistance level turns the momentum to negative for the pair. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0139 and with a high of 1.0269. No economic data is expected today.

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0181

Resistance

1.0230

1.0285


Support

1.0140

1.0080


 

Published in Forex Articles

Contributed By: DailyFX

Europe Session Key Developments

* IBEX 35 Surges Over 4 Percent
* 18 of the 18 Western European Benchmark Indexes Close Higher

Investors Optimistic that ECB Will Contain Sovereign Debt
European markets closed higher as investors speculated that the ECB may step up measures to contain the regions sovereign debt crisis. The broad based rally was lead by European bank stocks as Portugal and Ireland led a decline in the cost of insuring against losses on government and corporate bonds in Europe. Contracts in Belgium, Italy, and Spain also fell from previous highs. Many investors feel that the market was due for a bounce after the consistent selloff amid concerns of European debt. The Euro rose against the dollar and the yen on speculation that policy makers will delay their exit from emergency, unconventional, liquidity measures at tomorrow’s meeting of the Governing Council in Frankfurt. Overall, all 18 western European benchmark indexes closed in the green on Wednesday.

FTSE 100 / 5,642.50 / +114.23 / +2.07%
UK stocks advance as Chinese manufacturing expanded for a fourth month, boosting raw material companies. China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 55.2, the fastest pace in seven months. The results was more than the 54.8 median economist forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Rio Tinto Group gained 2l.6 percent while Xstrata Plc surged 4.1 percent as metal prices advanced. Sage Group Plc rose 5.4 percent as the software company announced profit that outpaced expectations. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc led bank shares higher after three days of losses.

CAC 40 / 3,669.29 / +58.85 / +1.63%
The CAC 40 closed over one and one half percent higher on Wednesday. Carrefour SA slumped 7.8 percent after the world’s second largest retailer cut its 2010 profit forecast and announced it will take charge at its Brazilian unit of 550 million Euros, more than triple its previous estimate. Barlays Plc, Evolution, Deutsche Bank AG and Banco Santander SA were among brokerages that advised investors to pare holdings in the ratiler after the results. Credit Agricole SA surged 3.8 percent after the company announced it is planning changes in senior management.

DAX / 6,866.63 / +178.14 / +2.66%
German stocks rose the most in three months as investors speculated that the debt crisis may force the ECB to expand their arsenal at their meeting tomorrow. Porsche SE advanced 6.2 percent after investors approved a 5 billion-Euro stock sale to reduce the company’s debt before its merger with Volkswagen AG. ThyssenKrupp AG and Salzgitter AG advanced with metal prices. BASF SE rose 3.1 percent, the highest price since 1992. The world’s largest chemical company won European Union approval to acquire food and cosmetics ingredients maker Cognis Holding GmbH after it agreed to sell Cognis’s hydroxyl monomers production business, eliminating antitrust concerns.

IBEX 35 / 9678.40 / +411.20 / +4.44%
The IBEX 35 soared nearly 4.5 percent at the end of the trading session on Wednesday. The index was led higher by the Financials sector, which experienced a 6.56 percent advance. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA jumped 7.3 percent, leading gains among Spanish banks, after Deutsche Bank AG announced that investors’ mistrust of Spain is unjustified. Banco Santander SA soared 7.2 percent, the largest gain in six months. Faes Farma SA jumped 13 percent, the largest increase in 23 months. The company announced it won approval to sell its allergy treatment in Spain.

S&P/MIB / 20,251.21 / +468.54 / +2.37%
Italian equities surged over 2 percent after posting the largest monthly decline in November since February 09. Banca Monte dei paschi di Sieena SpA rose 3.3 percent. A gauge for European banks ended a three day decline as bond risk fell from record levels. Fiat SpA rose for the first day in four, gaining 4.6 percent ahead of the release of car sales figures in Italy. Fondiaria-Sai advanced over 6 percent as CA Cheuvreux reiterated an “outperform” rating on the stock.

Published in Forex News
Wednesday, 01 December 2010 09:25

UFXBank Forex Outlook: EUR HIts 11-Week Low vs. USD

USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar gained against the major currencies as euro-zone concerns remained in focus and fears pushed investors to safe havens such as the dollar. The Chicago PMI came out at 62.5 better than the expected 60.1. The CB Consumer Confidence came out at 54.1, better than the expected 52.7. The Stock Market in the U.S. closed negative as the Dow Jones decreased by -0.42% and the NASDAQ lost -1.07%. Crude Oil erased the previous day's gains as it fell -2% and closed near $84 a barrel. Gold (XAU) posted gains as it jumped by 1.4% and closed at $1386 per ounce. Today, The ADP Non Farm Employment change is expected at 70k vs. 43k previously. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 56.4 vs. 56.9 previously. The Beige Book also will come out.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro fell to fresh 11 week lows in Forex trading against the dollar on concerns that the debt crisis will also spread to Portugal. The ECB President also said that they are not responsible for monitoring countries. The CPI came out unchanged as expected at 1.9%. The Unemployment rate came out unchanged as expected at 10.1%. Holding below the resistance level of 1.3050 keeps the momentum negative for the pair. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2975 and with a high of 1.3150. Today, German Retail Sales are expected at 1.3% vs. -1.7% previously.

EUR/USD – Last:  1.2982

Resistance

1.3040

1.3080

1.3150

Support

1.2970

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound slightly weakened against the dollar as it momentarily broke the 1.5500 area but quickly recovered and is still fluctuating around the support area of 1.5550. The GBP, however, has also been affected by the events in the euro zone. Holding above the support level of 1.5550 might push the pair upwards as oversold conditions have been seen in the pair. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5483 and with a high of 1.5595. Today, the Nationwide HPI is expected at -0.3% vs. -0.7% previously. The Manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.8 vs. 54.9 previously.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.5571

Resistance

1.5640

1.5730


Support

1.5550

1.5500

Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen gained versus most of the major currencies including the dollar as investors preferred the safe choice of running back to the Japanese currency. Holding below the resistance level of 84.40 might turn the momentum to negative for the pair. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.41 and with a high of 84.31. Capital Spending is expected at 6.1% vs. -1.7% previously.

USD/JPY-Last: 83.58

Resistance

83.80

84.40

Support

83.40

82.80


Canadian dollar (CAD) – The U.S. dollar gained against Canada's dollar after negative macro data in Canada showed that the GDP came out -0.1% worse than the expected 0.1%, signaling that the nation’s economy expanded at a slower pace than economists forecasted.  Holding above the 1.0240 support level keeps the momentum positive for the pair. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0170 and with a high of 1.0284. No economic data is expected today.

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0245

Resistance

1.0285



Support

1.0230

1.0160

1.0080

 

Published in Forex Articles

Contributed By: DailyFx

 FUNDYS

The rally in equities on Wednesday has helped to inspire some fresh buying back into risk trades, with the higher yielding commodity bloc currencies standing out as the big winners. The Canadian Dollar is by far the biggest gainer in recent trade with the Loonie finding some relative strength on the back of the news of Russia’s intent to boost Cad reserves over the coming months.

Relative Performance Versus USD Thursday (As of 9:00GMT)

1. KIWI+0.33%
2. AUSSIE +0.15%
3. CAD+0.08%
4. STERLING+0.07%
5. YEN+0.06%
6. EURO-0.01%
7. SWISSIE-0.26%

Price action in the major currencies has been less compelling however, with the Euro in particular still at risk (deeper setbacks seen to test key trend-line support by 1.3250) due to the ongoing debt crisis within the region, while the Pound rallies on resumption of risk buying have also been limited on concerns over UK loan exposure to Ireland. Swissie and Yen price action remains more consolidative than anything else.

On the data front, Japanese trade data came in narrower than expected, while exports data was also subdued. Meanwhile, Australian capital expenditures were much stronger than expected and helped to fuel some additional bids in the antipodean. In European trade, Swiss employment data was improved from the previous print, while UK CBI reported sales had yet to be released at the time of publication. Elsewhere, geopolitical risk remains on the radar, wit North Korea warning that it would launch more attacks on South Korea if provoked.

On the technical side of things, one of the most interesting charts right now is the Aud/Cad daily chart, with the market now confirming a major head & shoulders top following Thursday’s break of neckline support by 0.9900. This should now open a drop back towards a measured move objective by 0.9600 over the coming days. And with the market by cyclical highs on a longer-term basis, we could very well see setbacks extend well beyond the shorter-term 0.9600 objective. Ultimately, only back above the right shoulder by 1.0110 would negate bearish outlook.

We would remind everyone that trade is expected to be much lighter for the remainder of the week given the Thanksgiving day holiday in the US, and as such, the best strategy is most probably to stay on the sidelines. Lighter trade certainly does not mean less volatile trade, and volatility in light trade is not always welcome. More often than not, this type of volatility is characterized by whipsaw moves that make it nearly impossible to trade. The other possibility is that the markets go nowhere which is also not ideal for trading, unless of course you are selling volatility or buying double-no-touch options……….but we digress.


TECHS

EUR/USD: The latest drop below 1.3445 has confirmed a lower top by 1.3785 and opened a fresh downside extension, with the market accelerating below 1.3335 and the 100-Day SMA by 1.3300 before finally stalling out. Next key support now comes in by major rising trend-line support off of the 2010 lows in the 1.3250 area, and we would look for a test of this level over the coming sessions before considering the possibility of a corrective bounce. Rallies should however be well capped ahead of the 1.3600 figure.

USD/JPY: The market has been in recovery mode over the past several days since confirming a double bottom on the break above neckline resistance at 82.00. However, the risks for additional upside should now be limited to the 100-Day SMA by 84.20, and any rallies into this longer-term SMA should be sold in anticipation of a resumption of the broader underlying downtrend. The focus is still on a retest and break of the record lows by 79.75 from 1995, and only a sustained break back above the 100-Day SMA would negate this outlook.

GBP/USD: Overall, price action has been quite choppy, with the market unwilling to commit in either direction at present. The market has been trending lower since reaching 1.6300 several days back, but at the same time has held above the previous higher low by 1.5650 from October.. As such, the preferred strategy is to remain on the sidelines and look for a sustained break back above 1.6300 or below 1.5650 for clearer directional bias.

USD/CHF: We contend that the market is in the process of carving a material base by 0.9460, and any setbacks should be very well supported in favor of a sustained recovery. A fresh higher low has now been confirmed by 0.9550 following the latest break back above 0.9975, and the market should now accelerate beyond parity towards our next key topside objective at 1.0300 over the coming sessions. Any intraday setbacks are expected to be well supported ahead of 0.9700.

FLOWS

Middle-Eastern demand in Cable with talk of a semi-official name on the offer. Sales in Aud/Usd seen from spec types and real money accounts.

Published in Forex News
Friday, 26 November 2010 03:21

Swiss Franc 9850 is Resistance

Contributed By: DailyFx

 Swiss_Franc_9850_is_Resistance

After exceeding its 11/1 peak, the USDCHF has completed a monthly reversal (which is significant). The decline from the 2008 high of 12300 consists of 2 equal legs and may be wave B of a multi-year flat. The implications are for a powerful rally over the next several months that ends above 12300. Like the USDJPY, it is possible to count 5 waves up from 9550 so a correction back to 9850 is possible.

Published in Forex News
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