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Forex Daily News | Forex Articles | Forex Information
Tuesday, 23 November 2010 05:10

Crude Ready to Tumble

Contributed By: DailyFx

 Crude_Ready_to_Tumble

Near term in crude, 5 waves down are visible from the top which confirms that the larger trend has reversed. Crude reversed close to the former 4th wave extreme of 8300 therefore the next leg lower (either wave c or 3) is probably underway towards 71.50 (May low). Above 8332 would shift focus to resistance from Fibonacci at 8400 and 8500.

Published in Forex Articles
Tuesday, 23 November 2010 05:10

Gold at Resistance

Contributed By: DailyFx

 Gold_at_Resistance

A corrective advance from the low is nearing completion in. The metal has retraced 50% of its decline from the top and reached the former 4th wave extreme. In other words, the correction is satisfactory. Additional strength would see resistance from the 61.8% at 1388.

Published in Forex News
Tuesday, 23 November 2010 05:09

Japanese Yen Correction Underway

Contributed By: DailyFx

Japanese_Yen_Correction_Underway

“The break above both the 20 and 55 day averages and the longer term resistance line strongly suggests that the longer term trend has reversed. I hate chasing however and favor buying dips. Initial support is 8275, then 8200.” This is the dip and the USDJPY has reached initial support. It is best to wait for more evidence of a secondary low before committing to the long side here. 8160 to 8200 is an area of heightened interest.

Published in Forex News
Tuesday, 23 November 2010 05:02

New Zealand Dollar Nears Support Line

Contributed By: DailyFx

New_Zealand_Dollar_Nears_Support_Line

I wrote yesterday that “additional upside remains possible as the decline from the top is in 2 equal waves, which suggests that weakness is still corrective. As such, the NZDUSD could register one more high…however, given the bearish EURUSD, GBPUSD, and AUDUSD counts, it is wise to consider the bearish possibility shown above.” Look lower and move risk to 7840. The 60 day SMA at 7500 could serve as support but the next important level is 7400 (former support and resistance).

Published in Forex News
Tuesday, 23 November 2010 05:02

Australian Dollar Breaking Channel Support

Contributed By: DailyFx

Australian_Dollar_Breaking_Channel_Support

“5 waves down from the high are visible, which confirms that the larger trend is down…the corrective nature of the rally from the low confirms the larger bearish bias. The AUDUSD reversed at its 50% retracement so a secondary top is probably in place.” The AUDUSD is also breaking its channel (like the EURUSD) and a break of 9650 would expose 9500 (100% extension).

Published in Forex News
Tuesday, 23 November 2010 05:02

British Pound Approaching 60 day SMA

Contributed By: DailyFx

 

The GBPUSD is failing just ahead of its year+ resistance line. The line is at 16310 this week. For some time, I’ve favored the idea that a triangle is unfolding from the January 2009 low. If this is the case, then the GBPUSD should decline for months towards 15000 in wave d. A more bearish count is shown above. Risk on shorts can be moved to 16100.

Published in Forex News

USD Dollar (USD) – The dollar weakened against most of the major currencies in Forex trading despite positive economic data from last week. The fact that Irish leaders welcomed “substantial contingency capital funding” for Irish banks, finally gave some certainty to the market and saw the dollar weaken. The Stock Markets in the U.S. closed with the Dow Jones gaining by 0.20% and the NASDAQ increasing by 0.15%. Crude Oil weakened by 0.4% and closed at $81.51 a barrel. Gold (XAU) also fell by 0.1% and closed at $1352.30 an ounce. Today no economic data is expected.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro strengthened against the dollar as Brian Lenihan, the Irish finance minister, said he would welcome a “substantial contingency capital funding” mechanism for Irish banks and the French president volunteered to help the Irish country –who had accept the help . The German PPI came out 0.40% better than the expected 0.30%. With The pair returning to above the level of 1.3700 the trend is bullish and a long position is preferred. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3608 and with a high of 1.3744. Today, ECB President Trichet  is expected to speak and Consumer Confidence is expected at -10.00 vs. -11.00 prior.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3753

Resistance

1.3820


Support

1.3719

1.3651

1.3600

British Pound (GBP) – The British Pound fell against the U.S dollar and returned to the 1.5900 area. As long as the GBP/USD remains below 1.6000, the trend seems to be negative and a short position is preferred. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5936 and with a high of 1.6094. No economic data is expected today.

 

GBP/USD - Last:  1.6009

Resistance

1.6070

1.6143


Support

1.5937

1.5872


Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen continued to weaken against the dollar as economic data from the US favored the Dollar over the Yen. Today’s gains puts the pair back on to its strong rally. Through the day, the pair traded in a tight range until breaking out at 83.40. Although the trend is still strongly bullish, the pair seems to constantly get caught in a range, capturing the breakout may be a preferred strategy. The All Industries Activity Index came out at -0.80%, worse than the expected -0.60%. With the pair trading above 83.00, a long position is advised. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.37 and with a high of 83.52. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 83.41

Resistance

83.64

83.78

Support

83.14

82.77

82.39

 

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar, despite the largest five day decrease in crude oil prices since August, which reduced demand for assets related to economic growth. The trend for the pair remains slightly bullish as long as the USD/CAD trades above 1.0150. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0156 and with a high of 1.0234. No economic data is expected today.

 

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0139

Resistance

1.0222

1.0256

Support

1.0119

1.0061

 uf

Published in Forex Articles

USD Dollar (USD) – The dollar weakened against most of the major currencies in Forex trading despite positive economic data, the fact that Irish leaders welcomed “substantial contingency capital funding” for Irish banks finally gave some certainty to the market and saw the dollar weaken. Unemployment Claims came out better than expected at 439.00K vs. 442.00K.  The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was also much stronger than expected at a 22.50 vs. 4.50. The Stock Markets in U.S. closed with the Dow Jones gaining by 1.57% and the NASDAQ increasing by 1.55%. Crude Oil strengthened by 1.8% and closed at $81.85 a barrel. Gold (XAU) also gained by 1.2% and closed at $1353 an ounce. Today, Fed Chairman Bernanke is expected to speak.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro strengthened against the dollar as Brian Lenihan Irish finance minister said he would welcome a “substantial contingency capital funding” mechanism for Irish banks. The idea of contingency funds is welcomed more politically far more for banks than for states. The euro rallied more than 100 pips against the USD. The current account came out worse than expected at -13.10B vs -2.20 expected. With The pair returning to above the level of 1.3600 the trend is bullish and a long position is preferred. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3542 and with a high of 1.3667. Today, ECB President Trichet  is expected to speak.

EUR/USD – Last:1.3612

Resistance

1.3630

1.3660

Support

1.3600

1.3555

1.3508

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound continued to strengthen against the dollar and climbed back to hold above 1.6000 levels. Public Sector Net Borrowing came out greater than expected at 9.80B vs. 8.90B. Retail sales also came out greater then expect at 0.50% vs 0.20%. As long as the pair GBP/USD remains above 1.5950 the trend seems to be positive and a long position is preferred. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5887 and with a high of 1.6056. No economic data is expected today.

 

GBP/USD - Last:  1.6025

Resistance

1.6049

1.6087


Support

1.6010

1.5979

1.5945

Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen continued to weaken against the dollar as economic data from the US favored the Dollar over the Yen. Today’s gain puts the pair back on to its strong rally. Through the day the pair traded with a tight range until breaking out at 83.40. Although the trend is still strongly bullish the pair seems to constantly get caught in a range, capturing the breakout may be a preferred strategy. With the pair trading above 82.70 a long position is advised. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.09 and with a high of 83.78. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 83.40

Resistance

83.60

83.78

Support

83.40

83.10

83.00

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian dollar strengthened against the dollar as certainty prevailed regarding Irish debt which sent commodities and global equities to higher levels. Positive data also helped the pair’s momentum. Foreign Securities Purchases came out 12.25B vs. 9.21B and wholesale sales at 0.4% vs. 0.10%. The trend for the pair remains slightly bullish as long as the USD/CAD trades above 1.0150. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0155 and with a high of 1.0236. No economic data is expected today.

 

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0208

Resistance

1.0220

1.0260

Support

1.0180

1.0161

Published in Forex Articles

USD Dollar (USD) – The dollar weakened against most of the major currencies in Forex trading despite positive economic data, the fact that Irish leaders welcomed “substantial contingency capital funding” for Irish banks finally gave some certainty to the market and saw the dollar weaken. Unemployment Claims came out better than expected at 439.00K vs. 442.00K.  The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was also much stronger than expected at a 22.50 vs. 4.50. The Stock Markets in U.S. closed with the Dow Jones gaining by 1.57% and the NASDAQ increasing by 1.55%. Crude Oil strengthened by 1.8% and closed at $81.85 a barrel. Gold (XAU) also gained by 1.2% and closed at $1353 an ounce. Today, Fed Chairman Bernanke is expected to speak.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro strengthened against the dollar as Brian Lenihan Irish finance minister said he would welcome a “substantial contingency capital funding” mechanism for Irish banks. The idea of contingency funds is welcomed more politically far more for banks than for states. The euro rallied more than 100 pips against the USD. The current account came out worse than expected at -13.10B vs -2.20 expected. With The pair returning to above the level of 1.3600 the trend is bullish and a long position is preferred. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3542 and with a high of 1.3667. Today, ECB President Trichet  is expected to speak.

EUR/USD – Last:1.3612

Resistance

1.3630

1.3660

Support

1.3600

1.3555

1.3508

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound continued to strengthen against the dollar and climbed back to hold above 1.6000 levels. Public Sector Net Borrowing came out greater than expected at 9.80B vs. 8.90B. Retail sales also came out greater then expect at 0.50% vs 0.20%. As long as the pair GBP/USD remains above 1.5950 the trend seems to be positive and a long position is preferred. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5887 and with a high of 1.6056. No economic data is expected today.

 

GBP/USD - Last:  1.6025

Resistance

1.6049

1.6087


Support

1.6010

1.5979

1.5945

Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen continued to weaken against the dollar as economic data from the US favored the Dollar over the Yen. Today’s gain puts the pair back on to its strong rally. Through the day the pair traded with a tight range until breaking out at 83.40. Although the trend is still strongly bullish the pair seems to constantly get caught in a range, capturing the breakout may be a preferred strategy. With the pair trading above 82.70 a long position is advised. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.09 and with a high of 83.78. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 83.40

Resistance

83.60

83.78

Support

83.40

83.10

83.00

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian dollar strengthened against the dollar as certainty prevailed regarding Irish debt which sent commodities and global equities to higher levels. Positive data also helped the pair’s momentum. Foreign Securities Purchases came out 12.25B vs. 9.21B and wholesale sales at 0.4% vs. 0.10%. The trend for the pair remains slightly bullish as long as the USD/CAD trades above 1.0150. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0155 and with a high of 1.0236. No economic data is expected today.

 

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0208

Resistance

1.0220

1.0260

Support

1.0180

1.0161

Published in Forex Articles
Saturday, 20 November 2010 08:06

British Pound Fortunes Tied To Solution for Ireland

Contributed By: DailyFx

 British-Pound-Fortunes-Tied

British Pound Fortunes Tied To Solution for Ireland

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bearish

* BoE Minutes Reveal Three Way Split
* Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fell by 3.7K in October
* UK Inflation Rises to 3.2% As Fuel Costs Gain

The British Pound closely tracked the issues in Ireland on the week with the ongoing saga expected to be a driver of price action going forward, as U.K. banks have significant exposure to their indebted neighbor. Irish officials are in talks with the EU and IMF on a potential bailout package similar to what was extended to Greece. However, a point of contention remains the country’s low business tax which has helped attract foreign investment in the country. Any aid will assuredly come with strict austerity measures to help bring down the bloated deficit and any resistance could threaten the potential for a resolution. The prospect of a solution helped stem sterling losses but signs of a road block have brought the currency back under pressure.

Dovish comments from BoE governor King sparked a mid-week sell off as the lead policy maker derailed building interest rate expectations by stating that "We could do further quantitative easing if that turned out to be necessary, further asset purchases. We see that as a normal instrument of monetary policy." Inflation rising to 3.2% in October improved the hawkish case that has been developing since the central bank didn’t follow its U.S. counterpart down the path of quantitative easing. However, the minutes from the MPC’s last policy meeting showed the tally remained unchanged at 7-1-1 as the majority continues to be willing to sit on the sidelines until price growth shows signs of slowing before adding stimulus. Indeed, Deputy Governor Paul Tucker recently restated the monetary authority’s belief that inflation will return below their 2.0% target as existing slack in the economy remains. Despite the dovish talk positive fundamentals has the outlook for yields at their highest since August as improving retail sales and employment data provide a counter argument.

The upcoming economic docket pales in comparison to the past week with only the second reading of 3Q GDP and BBA loans for home purchase on tap. Therefore, we may see price action continue to be at the mercy of broader trends with the issues in Ireland the biggest influence. A resolution could provide sterling support but sign that talks are meandering toward a disappointing end could sink the pound. A second story line that must be watched is China’s efforts to curb domestic growth as a dimming outlook for the global economy could spark a flight to safety which could see the cable lose ground to the greenback. Nevertheless, a bullish case can also be made on the back of a aid package for Ireland and the building case for higher yields which would be furthered by a upward revision in growth.

Published in Forex News
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