.
NEW YORK
18:14
LONDON
23:14
PARIS
00:14
FRANKFURT
00:14
HONG KONG
05:14
TOKYO
07:14
SYDNEY
08:14
  • Trade Now
Forex Daily News | Forex Articles | Forex Information
Tuesday, 23 November 2010 05:02

Australian Dollar Breaking Channel Support

Contributed By: DailyFx

Australian_Dollar_Breaking_Channel_Support

“5 waves down from the high are visible, which confirms that the larger trend is down…the corrective nature of the rally from the low confirms the larger bearish bias. The AUDUSD reversed at its 50% retracement so a secondary top is probably in place.” The AUDUSD is also breaking its channel (like the EURUSD) and a break of 9650 would expose 9500 (100% extension).

Published in Forex News
Tuesday, 23 November 2010 05:02

British Pound Approaching 60 day SMA

Contributed By: DailyFx

 

The GBPUSD is failing just ahead of its year+ resistance line. The line is at 16310 this week. For some time, I’ve favored the idea that a triangle is unfolding from the January 2009 low. If this is the case, then the GBPUSD should decline for months towards 15000 in wave d. A more bearish count is shown above. Risk on shorts can be moved to 16100.

Published in Forex News

USD Dollar (USD) – The dollar weakened against most of the major currencies in Forex trading despite positive economic data from last week. The fact that Irish leaders welcomed “substantial contingency capital funding” for Irish banks, finally gave some certainty to the market and saw the dollar weaken. The Stock Markets in the U.S. closed with the Dow Jones gaining by 0.20% and the NASDAQ increasing by 0.15%. Crude Oil weakened by 0.4% and closed at $81.51 a barrel. Gold (XAU) also fell by 0.1% and closed at $1352.30 an ounce. Today no economic data is expected.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro strengthened against the dollar as Brian Lenihan, the Irish finance minister, said he would welcome a “substantial contingency capital funding” mechanism for Irish banks and the French president volunteered to help the Irish country –who had accept the help . The German PPI came out 0.40% better than the expected 0.30%. With The pair returning to above the level of 1.3700 the trend is bullish and a long position is preferred. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3608 and with a high of 1.3744. Today, ECB President Trichet  is expected to speak and Consumer Confidence is expected at -10.00 vs. -11.00 prior.

EUR/USD – Last: 1.3753

Resistance

1.3820


Support

1.3719

1.3651

1.3600

British Pound (GBP) – The British Pound fell against the U.S dollar and returned to the 1.5900 area. As long as the GBP/USD remains below 1.6000, the trend seems to be negative and a short position is preferred. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5936 and with a high of 1.6094. No economic data is expected today.

 

GBP/USD - Last:  1.6009

Resistance

1.6070

1.6143


Support

1.5937

1.5872


Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen continued to weaken against the dollar as economic data from the US favored the Dollar over the Yen. Today’s gains puts the pair back on to its strong rally. Through the day, the pair traded in a tight range until breaking out at 83.40. Although the trend is still strongly bullish, the pair seems to constantly get caught in a range, capturing the breakout may be a preferred strategy. The All Industries Activity Index came out at -0.80%, worse than the expected -0.60%. With the pair trading above 83.00, a long position is advised. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.37 and with a high of 83.52. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 83.41

Resistance

83.64

83.78

Support

83.14

82.77

82.39

 

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar, despite the largest five day decrease in crude oil prices since August, which reduced demand for assets related to economic growth. The trend for the pair remains slightly bullish as long as the USD/CAD trades above 1.0150. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0156 and with a high of 1.0234. No economic data is expected today.

 

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0139

Resistance

1.0222

1.0256

Support

1.0119

1.0061

 uf

Published in Forex Articles

USD Dollar (USD) – The dollar weakened against most of the major currencies in Forex trading despite positive economic data, the fact that Irish leaders welcomed “substantial contingency capital funding” for Irish banks finally gave some certainty to the market and saw the dollar weaken. Unemployment Claims came out better than expected at 439.00K vs. 442.00K.  The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was also much stronger than expected at a 22.50 vs. 4.50. The Stock Markets in U.S. closed with the Dow Jones gaining by 1.57% and the NASDAQ increasing by 1.55%. Crude Oil strengthened by 1.8% and closed at $81.85 a barrel. Gold (XAU) also gained by 1.2% and closed at $1353 an ounce. Today, Fed Chairman Bernanke is expected to speak.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro strengthened against the dollar as Brian Lenihan Irish finance minister said he would welcome a “substantial contingency capital funding” mechanism for Irish banks. The idea of contingency funds is welcomed more politically far more for banks than for states. The euro rallied more than 100 pips against the USD. The current account came out worse than expected at -13.10B vs -2.20 expected. With The pair returning to above the level of 1.3600 the trend is bullish and a long position is preferred. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3542 and with a high of 1.3667. Today, ECB President Trichet  is expected to speak.

EUR/USD – Last:1.3612

Resistance

1.3630

1.3660

Support

1.3600

1.3555

1.3508

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound continued to strengthen against the dollar and climbed back to hold above 1.6000 levels. Public Sector Net Borrowing came out greater than expected at 9.80B vs. 8.90B. Retail sales also came out greater then expect at 0.50% vs 0.20%. As long as the pair GBP/USD remains above 1.5950 the trend seems to be positive and a long position is preferred. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5887 and with a high of 1.6056. No economic data is expected today.

 

GBP/USD - Last:  1.6025

Resistance

1.6049

1.6087


Support

1.6010

1.5979

1.5945

Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen continued to weaken against the dollar as economic data from the US favored the Dollar over the Yen. Today’s gain puts the pair back on to its strong rally. Through the day the pair traded with a tight range until breaking out at 83.40. Although the trend is still strongly bullish the pair seems to constantly get caught in a range, capturing the breakout may be a preferred strategy. With the pair trading above 82.70 a long position is advised. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.09 and with a high of 83.78. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 83.40

Resistance

83.60

83.78

Support

83.40

83.10

83.00

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian dollar strengthened against the dollar as certainty prevailed regarding Irish debt which sent commodities and global equities to higher levels. Positive data also helped the pair’s momentum. Foreign Securities Purchases came out 12.25B vs. 9.21B and wholesale sales at 0.4% vs. 0.10%. The trend for the pair remains slightly bullish as long as the USD/CAD trades above 1.0150. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0155 and with a high of 1.0236. No economic data is expected today.

 

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0208

Resistance

1.0220

1.0260

Support

1.0180

1.0161

Published in Forex Articles

USD Dollar (USD) – The dollar weakened against most of the major currencies in Forex trading despite positive economic data, the fact that Irish leaders welcomed “substantial contingency capital funding” for Irish banks finally gave some certainty to the market and saw the dollar weaken. Unemployment Claims came out better than expected at 439.00K vs. 442.00K.  The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was also much stronger than expected at a 22.50 vs. 4.50. The Stock Markets in U.S. closed with the Dow Jones gaining by 1.57% and the NASDAQ increasing by 1.55%. Crude Oil strengthened by 1.8% and closed at $81.85 a barrel. Gold (XAU) also gained by 1.2% and closed at $1353 an ounce. Today, Fed Chairman Bernanke is expected to speak.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro strengthened against the dollar as Brian Lenihan Irish finance minister said he would welcome a “substantial contingency capital funding” mechanism for Irish banks. The idea of contingency funds is welcomed more politically far more for banks than for states. The euro rallied more than 100 pips against the USD. The current account came out worse than expected at -13.10B vs -2.20 expected. With The pair returning to above the level of 1.3600 the trend is bullish and a long position is preferred. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3542 and with a high of 1.3667. Today, ECB President Trichet  is expected to speak.

EUR/USD – Last:1.3612

Resistance

1.3630

1.3660

Support

1.3600

1.3555

1.3508

British Pound (GBP) – The Pound continued to strengthen against the dollar and climbed back to hold above 1.6000 levels. Public Sector Net Borrowing came out greater than expected at 9.80B vs. 8.90B. Retail sales also came out greater then expect at 0.50% vs 0.20%. As long as the pair GBP/USD remains above 1.5950 the trend seems to be positive and a long position is preferred. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5887 and with a high of 1.6056. No economic data is expected today.

 

GBP/USD - Last:  1.6025

Resistance

1.6049

1.6087


Support

1.6010

1.5979

1.5945

Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Yen continued to weaken against the dollar as economic data from the US favored the Dollar over the Yen. Today’s gain puts the pair back on to its strong rally. Through the day the pair traded with a tight range until breaking out at 83.40. Although the trend is still strongly bullish the pair seems to constantly get caught in a range, capturing the breakout may be a preferred strategy. With the pair trading above 82.70 a long position is advised. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 83.09 and with a high of 83.78. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 83.40

Resistance

83.60

83.78

Support

83.40

83.10

83.00

Canadian dollar (CAD) – The Canadian dollar strengthened against the dollar as certainty prevailed regarding Irish debt which sent commodities and global equities to higher levels. Positive data also helped the pair’s momentum. Foreign Securities Purchases came out 12.25B vs. 9.21B and wholesale sales at 0.4% vs. 0.10%. The trend for the pair remains slightly bullish as long as the USD/CAD trades above 1.0150. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.0155 and with a high of 1.0236. No economic data is expected today.

 

USD/CAD - Last: 1.0208

Resistance

1.0220

1.0260

Support

1.0180

1.0161

Published in Forex Articles
Saturday, 20 November 2010 08:06

British Pound Fortunes Tied To Solution for Ireland

Contributed By: DailyFx

 British-Pound-Fortunes-Tied

British Pound Fortunes Tied To Solution for Ireland

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Bearish

* BoE Minutes Reveal Three Way Split
* Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Fell by 3.7K in October
* UK Inflation Rises to 3.2% As Fuel Costs Gain

The British Pound closely tracked the issues in Ireland on the week with the ongoing saga expected to be a driver of price action going forward, as U.K. banks have significant exposure to their indebted neighbor. Irish officials are in talks with the EU and IMF on a potential bailout package similar to what was extended to Greece. However, a point of contention remains the country’s low business tax which has helped attract foreign investment in the country. Any aid will assuredly come with strict austerity measures to help bring down the bloated deficit and any resistance could threaten the potential for a resolution. The prospect of a solution helped stem sterling losses but signs of a road block have brought the currency back under pressure.

Dovish comments from BoE governor King sparked a mid-week sell off as the lead policy maker derailed building interest rate expectations by stating that "We could do further quantitative easing if that turned out to be necessary, further asset purchases. We see that as a normal instrument of monetary policy." Inflation rising to 3.2% in October improved the hawkish case that has been developing since the central bank didn’t follow its U.S. counterpart down the path of quantitative easing. However, the minutes from the MPC’s last policy meeting showed the tally remained unchanged at 7-1-1 as the majority continues to be willing to sit on the sidelines until price growth shows signs of slowing before adding stimulus. Indeed, Deputy Governor Paul Tucker recently restated the monetary authority’s belief that inflation will return below their 2.0% target as existing slack in the economy remains. Despite the dovish talk positive fundamentals has the outlook for yields at their highest since August as improving retail sales and employment data provide a counter argument.

The upcoming economic docket pales in comparison to the past week with only the second reading of 3Q GDP and BBA loans for home purchase on tap. Therefore, we may see price action continue to be at the mercy of broader trends with the issues in Ireland the biggest influence. A resolution could provide sterling support but sign that talks are meandering toward a disappointing end could sink the pound. A second story line that must be watched is China’s efforts to curb domestic growth as a dimming outlook for the global economy could spark a flight to safety which could see the cable lose ground to the greenback. Nevertheless, a bullish case can also be made on the back of a aid package for Ireland and the building case for higher yields which would be furthered by a upward revision in growth.

Published in Forex News

Contributed By: DailyFx

 Japanese_Yen_Losing_its_Safe_Haven_Status_and_Thereby_its_Buoyancy

Japanese Yen Losing its Safe Haven Status and Thereby its Buoyancy

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bearish

* The OECD projects Japanese GDP to slow from 3.7 percent this year to 1.7 percent in 2011 and 1.3 percent in 2012
* USDJPY has shown significant progress in three weeks; but is it a sign of a true trend change?

It is interesting to note that over the past three weeks, we have seen strong swings in risk appetite and risk aversion. And, through it all, USDJPY has maintained a steady advance. This bullish push (the most consistent since April) is made even more meaningful by the fact that this recent advance has turned a descending trend channel that had maintained the market’s bearings for six months. It is worth noting that similar selling patterns have emerged against the euro, pound and Canadian dollar among others; so this is not simply a one-off. However, there is something remarkable to take away specifically from USDJPY’s performance as both currencies stand as safe havens that have seen their fundamental foundations crumble from beneath them.

The reason that we should focus on the USDJPY cross specifically is that over the past few years, we have seen very clear trends emerge both for and against risk appetite. When panic hit its peak, capital was flowing into both the US dollar and Japanese yen; and when confidence was restored, the tide of funds once again receded. It is short-sighted to simply attribute cause and effect through risk appetite alone; because it contradicts a few fundamental truisms. To be a safe haven, a security generally needs deep liquidity, secure financial markets, stable pricing and some level of yield. Yet, with both the dollar and yen, financial uncertainties are prevalent (hence the need for stimulus), there is a real risk of deflation, and yields fall well short of risk. Often times, it is the case that the expectations for a currency to play the role of safe haven will produce a self-fulfilled prophecy; however, such a condition will reach its limit eventually. Even the scenario whereby the unwinding of previously established carry positions can keep the yen bid will run out steam. If, the Japanese yen were not so near record or multi-year highs across the board, it would be easier to ignore this fact. However, this is not the case here.

A wind down of risk funds from the Japanese yen is akin to nuclear disarmament – it will be very slow and highly reactive. Pushing the yen down means a combination of unwinding established long-positions and placing new shorts. The prevalence of long yen positions is already limited s we have not seen a meaningful risk aversion trend from the capital markets in some time. On the other hand, taking new yen short positions would be an indirect means of taking a long-carry view. That naturally raises an investor’s risk profile. However, the picture is very different between AUDJPY and say USDJPY. For the Aussie-based pair, the carry exposure is explicit; but for the dollar-backed major, we have two ‘safe haven’ currencies. That is why, to establish the true health of the Japanese yen, we need to keep a close eye on the performance of its very different pairings.

Published in Forex News
Saturday, 20 November 2010 08:06

Euro: How Will Traders React to an Irish Bailout?

Contributed By: DailyFx

 Euro_How_Will_Traders_React_to_an_Irish_Bailout

Euro: How Will Traders React to an Irish Bailout?

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bearish

- Ireland ignores calls to seek aid as the EU President warns euro in a ‘survival crisis’

- Greece’s 2009 deficit is revised sharply higher to 15.4 percent of GDP

- Euro marks a trend-defining breakout but comes up short on follow through momentum

Given the title of this section, it is clear what I expect to come of the persistent problems facing Ireland. Officials from the European Union, European Central Bank and IMF have traveled to Dublin to assess the ability of the country’s financial system to stand on its own two feet. Finance Minister Lenihan’s decision not to ask for aid at the last monthly EU meeting represents a sidestep in a complicated dance of politics and risk appetite trends. His suggestion that the government is fully funded through the middle of next year is technically true; and the refusal to seek aid is a sign of fiscal conservancy and confidence in his economy. However, the capital markets are not led by example; and the Ireland’s banking system is in dire need of affordable funding. With the nation’s banks borrowing 130 billion euros from the ECB (80 percent of GDP) and Allied Irish seeing liquidity drain with a 17 percent drop in deposits so far this year; something needs to be done to stem the bleeding.

Looking ahead to next week, there is no set time for when Ireland’s unofficial auditors will release their assessment on the country’s financial condition and deliver its recommendation; but the longer a decision is pushed back, the more speculative influence will take over and the greater the sense of anxiety will grow. In fact, there are two outcomes to this scenario. If the entourage of policy officials deems the stressed economy capable of fixing itself; it would be encouraging. That said, such an assessment would very likely be completely disregarded as record yield spreads would quite clearly weigh on the banking sector’s health. The speculative market is expecting aid; and there is a clear risk that confidence would crash and funding costs would soar should that conclusion not be met. If indeed Ireland’s immediate financial troubles are smothered, sovereign bond investors would be less reticent to hold the nation’s debt and the threat of an imminent crisis will be averted – for now. This could offer a temporary boost to the euro and market-wide sentiment.

Yet, in the wake of a financial rescue for Ireland, it will be hard to ignore the fact that this is the second EU member that would have to be saved from a crisis in six months. Had it been only one, it could be written off as anomaly. Yet, with two, there are the makings of a trend. And, if we wanted to identify those countries that are at-risk of a similar fate under adverse financial conditions, we can easily make the case for Portugal and then we step up to a far bigger player: Spain. The major variable here is how long confidence lasts in the EU’s effort to support its members. Much of the prevailing sentiment will have to do with the recognition that severe austerity measures amongst the high deficit economies will choke off growth and thereby increase the deficit through lost tax revenues. In the meantime, Germany’s push for sovereign bond investors to accept a portion of future potential losses will curb demand in an already restrictive time. Furthermore, risk aversion can be stoked by factors outside the European bubble (by say US housing market concerns or the application of emerging market capital curbs); but the effect would be the same on Europe’s pained financial system. As a global sore thumb, yields differentials would continued to balloon and force EU members deeper into trouble.

Published in Forex News

Contributed By: DailyFx

 US_Dollar_Recovery_on_Track_as_Traders_Cover_Short_Positions

US Dollar Recovery on Track as Traders Cover Short Positions

Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish

US Dollar drops on speculation that Ireland to accept Euro Zone fiscal aid

Greenback loses on soft US CPI inflation print, broader financial market consolidation

Yet the DailyFX team remains broadly positioned for continued US Dollar strength

A week of broader market consolidation left the US Dollar roughly unchanged from last week’s close, but the Greenback’s impressive turn from significant lows warns that the currency could recover further into the weeks ahead. Speculation that Ireland would accept a fiscal aid package from the Euro Zone and the UK calmed market tensions over the stability of the Euro, and the subsequent recovery in financial market risk sentiment sunk the safe-haven US currency. Yet exceedingly volatile day-to-day swings in the US S&P 500 and other financial market risk barometers warn that sentiment remains especially fragile, and flare-ups in tensions could easily force further US Dollar strength.

Lower-tier US economic data may make event-driven volatility unlikely in the days ahead, but traders should keep an eye out for especially surprising results from a densely packed string of economic releases through Tuesday and Wednesday. Such events include Existing Home Sales data, monthly changes in Durable Goods Orders, Personal Income and Spending releases, New and Existing Home Sales purchases, and the Minutes from the most recent US Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

FOMC Minutes arguably have the greatest potential to move markets, as they will clarify the Fed’s thinking in their decision to boost controversial Quantitative Easing measures by a further $600 billion through their most recent meeting. Though their decision was almost unanimous, markets may pay especially close attention to dissenting views from within the central bank as several officials have already spoken against such efforts.

The other events certainly have the potential to shift financial market sentiment, but it may take especially above or below-forecast results for these second-tier news releases to elicit reactions from the US Dollar. Given the recent fragility in financial market risk sentiment, we would argue that risks remain to the downside on any key disappointments in consumer and housing-centric economic data.

Recent weeks of US Dollar rallies leave momentum firmly in the currency’s favor, and the past week of sideways price action seems reasonable in light of previous gains. We maintain that the US Dollar established a fairly significant low against the Euro and other key currencies in the days following the Fed’s announcement of further QE. Recent CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows that many speculators have rushed to cover USD shorts amidst a general correction across financial markets. Yet Non-Commercial traders remain fairly net-short, and a further contraction in leveraged financial bets could fuel further US Dollar strength.

Published in Forex News
Saturday, 20 November 2010 08:07

Crude Decline May Accelerate

Contributed By: DailyFx

Crude_Decline_May_Accelerate 

Near term in crude, 5 waves down are visible from the top which confirms that the larger trend has reversed. Crude reversed close to the former 4th wave extreme of 8300 therefore the next leg lower (either wave c or 3) is probably underway towards 71.50 (May low). Above 8332 would shift focus to resistance from Fibonacci at 8400 and 8500.
Published in Forex News
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
End
Page 2 of 26

Currency converter
Amount:
From:
To:


Polls

Which is the Best Forex Broker you have traded with?

Interview with Matthew Sheppard

Senior Forex Advisor at XForex


1. What is your name and position?

Hello, my name is Matthew Sheppard and I am a senior forex advisor at XForex.

2. What is your experience and professional background?

In the last 6 years I had filled several positions in financial institutions such as a stock broker, a foreign exchange desk manager, a financial consultant and in my recent role I serve as a senior Forex advisor for XForex which is an online forex company.

3. What type of clients you deal with?

We deal with clients on all levels from the beginning stages to the more advanced trading levels.

4. Does most of your business activity come from the online or offline world?

Because of our high presence on the web, most of our business comes from the online world.

5. Why should a trader pick XForex from all forex brokers?

Aside from all the benefits that XForex offer like commission-free trading, 24/7 online support, high leverage (200:1), XForex offers educational and learning trading experience that you won’t find anywhere else..

Our team of experts and financial trainers provide personal assistance and guide clients to financial success. We provide daily analysis and market reviews to our clients giving them a better understanding of the market and helping them trade profitably.

6. From your experience, what advice would you give a person who wants to enter the forex world?

My advice to the beginning trader entering the Forex world is as follows:
  • Learn the market and understand what you’re getting into.
  • Research and find the broker that suits your needs and wants. Look for a good offering but more importantly customer service, don’t go for the low rates offer without being certain they have a good customer service department. From my extensive experience in the Forex world your key to success will be your client-broker relationship. I can honestly say that at XForex they put an emphasis on servicing clients, which is so important.
  • Invest smartly and calculate your risks.
  • Always know when to get out of a trade.

Broker of the Month

5_small_logoUFXBank provide up-to-date charts and news feeds, coupled with an easily navigated trading platform. UFXBank traders can access the biggest market in the world 24 hours a day with ease.

By keeping their platform, site and deposit process simple, safe and secure, UFXBank have become the web’s premier online forex trader.