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Forex Daily News | Forex Articles | Forex Information
Monday, 01 November 2010 10:39

EUR/JPY Classical 01/11/2010

Contributed by: DailyFx

EURJPY_Classical_01112010

EUR/JPY: The market has done a very good job of holding above the daily Ichimoku cloud to suggest that we could be on the verge of a material shift in the structure in favor of significant upside over the medium and longer-term. Daily studies are however in the process of unwinding from stretched levels, so the preferred strategy is to look to buy into dips rather than on upside breaks. A good level to look to establish a long position now comes in by previous resistance turned support in the form of the daily Ichimoku cloud top (currently by 111.00).

Published in Forex News
Monday, 01 November 2010 10:40

EUR/USD Classical 01/11/2010

Contributed by: DailyFx

EURUSD_Classical_01112010

EUR/USD: The prospects for a head & shoulders top are fading following the latest break back above 1.4000, and the market is once again contemplating a fresh upside extension beyond 1.4160 and towards some major longer-term falling trend-line resistance by 1.4500 off of the record highs from 2008. For now, we will retain our bearish outlook and look for any rallies to be very well capped ahead of 1.4080, in favor of some renewed weakness. Key short-term support comes in by 1.3735 and a break below will be required to reaffirm outlook and accelerate declines.

Published in Forex News
Monday, 01 November 2010 10:40

GBP/JPY Classical 01/11/2010

Contributed by: DailyFx

GBPJPY_Classical_01112010

GBP/JPY: A closer look at Ichimoku studies suggests that we are still very much in downtrend, with the market most recently breaking to fresh 2010 lows by 126.45. However, as mentioned in previous commentary, daily studies were looking quite stretched, and despite the break to fresh yearly lows, the latest sharp bounce suggests that overall, the market is very well supported in the 126.00’s on a medium-term basis. From here, we would not at all be surprised to see additional upside towards 135.00, but we prefer to remain sidelined given what is still an overwhelmingly bearish trend.

Published in Forex News
Monday, 01 November 2010 10:40

GBP/USD Classical 01/11/2010

Contributed by: DailyFx

GBPUSD_Classical_01112010

GBP/USD: Friday’s close back above 1.6000 is concerning for bears, with the market contemplating a fresh upside extension beyond 1.6100. Still, the market has been very well capped on rallies above 1.6000 in recent weeks, and will look for another topside failure in favor of a some renewed weakness and a continuation of a broader multi-week range trade. However, should the market manage a close above the 1.6100 figure for more than 2 days, it will force a shift in the outlook and expose fresh upside towards 1.6500 further up. For now we remain sidelined and await a clearer signal.

Published in Forex News
Monday, 01 November 2010 10:40

NZD/USD Classical 01/11/2010

Contributed by: DailyFx

NZDUSD_Classical_01112010

NZD/USD: A break to fresh yearly highs above 0.7650 seriously compromises our bearish outlook here, with the market now threatening a fresh upside extension back towards critical psychological barriers by 0.8000 over the coming days. However, while the market trades in he 0.7600’s and remains offered below 0.7700, we will hold onto our bearish bias and look for yet another topside failure ahead of some fresh downside. Back above 0.7700 negates, while below 0.7500 should confirm and accelerate declines.

Published in Forex News
Monday, 01 November 2010 10:40

USD/CAD Classical 01/11/2010

Contributed by: DailyFx

USDCAD_Classical_01112010

USD/CAD: As expected, the market was very well supported on dips below parity, with the latest sharp bounce back above 1.0200 solidifying our constructive outlook and opening the door for significant gains over the coming weeks. Look for continued appreciation towards the multi-week highs by 1.0700 over the coming weeks, with only a break back below 0.9970 to ultimately negate outlook and give reason for concern. A higher low is now sought out in the 1.0100’s ahead of the next major upside extension to be confirmed on a break back above key short-term resistance at 1.0375.

Published in Forex News
Monday, 01 November 2010 10:40

USD/CHF Classical 01/11/2010

Contributed by: DailyFx

USDCHF_Classical_01112010

USD/CHF: With daily studies finally crossing up from oversold and the market managing to close back above the 20-Day SMA for the first time since August, we are encouraged with the prospects for the formation of a major base by the recently established record lows at 0.9460. From here, look for any intraday setbacks to be well supported on dips towards 0.9700, with the market now eying a move towards next key resistance by 1.0000 over the coming sessions. Last week’s inability to extend declines to yet another record low below 0.9460, set up a strong bullish reversal week to end a sequence of 9 consecutive weekly lower highs. This further strengthens our constructive outlook and over the medium and longer-term we see significant upside risk. The market is now looking to establish back above the 50-Day SMA for the first time since mid-June.

Published in Forex News
Monday, 01 November 2010 10:40

USD/JPY Classical 01/11/2010

Contributed by: DailyFx

USDJPY_Classical_01112010

USD/JPY: While we like the idea of the market establishing a major base by current levels over the medium and longer-term, short-term price action has still not confirmed any signs of a bottom, with the price action over the past few days more characteristic of a bearish consolidation ahead of the next drop towards the record lows. Ultimately, a close back above 82.00 will now be required to relieve downside pressures. However, we will be on the lookout for an opportunity to buy on dips below the 79.75 record lows.

Published in Forex News

Contributed by: DailyFx

OVERVIEW – With the USD Dollar back under pressure across the board and commodities well bid on dips, we are once again seeing fresh bids emerge in the regional currencies, which continue to outperform in the current market environment. The SEK has been the big gainer of late, with the currency finding some relative bids on the back of yet another rate hike from the Riksbank in the previous week. Interest rate differentials have been aggressively swaying back in favor of Sweden relative to Norway, as the Norges Bank scales back and is standing aside for now. Looking ahead, Monday sees the release of some key PMI data in both Norway and Sweden, while in Denmark, retail sales are set for release. Also out later in the week are Norwegian unemployment and industrial production.

EUR/SEK DAILY

Market_Conditions_Continue_to_Favor_Regional_Strength_1

Eur/SekAlthough the overriding trend is still intensely bearish, the market looks to have finally found some form of a base by 9.09 after triggering an inverse head & shoulders pattern. From here, look for additional upside back towards a measured move objective by 9.50 over the coming days. Ultimately, only back below 9.13 would delay and give reason for concern.

Eur/Nok Overall price action remains quite choppy with the market confined to a well defined range over the past several weeks between 7.80 and 8.20. The latest rally attempts have once again stalled out just over the 8.20 range resistance, and the risks from here are for range trade resumption back towards the 7.80 area over the coming sessions. Only a close back above 8.20 would negate outlook.

Usd/SekThe latest rally attempts have once again stalled out and any hopes for the formation of a material base by 6.50 are looking less and less likely. The underlying trend remains intensely bearish and a break below 6.50 will solidify this fact and open the door for the next major downside extension. At this point, only a break back above 6.83 would negate outlook and give reason for pause.

Usd/Nok The latest rally attempts have once again stalled out and any hopes for the formation of a material base by 5.70 are looking less and less likely. The underlying trend remains intensely bearish and a break below 5.70 will solidify this fact and open the door for the next major downside extension. At this point, only a break back above 5.96 would negate outlook and give reason for pause.

Gbp/NokOverall price action remains quite choppy with the latest sharp sell-off being very well supported ahead of psychological barriers by the 9 handle. From here, we will use the 9.50 level as a gauge for directional bias. While the market holds below, we would expect to see downside pressures persist, but back above will relieve downside pressure and potentially open some fresh upside back towards the 10.00 handle.

Nok/JpyRemains confined to a multi-day range broadly defined between 13.25 and 14.50. The market has most recently stalled out by the range highs, and as such, the preferred strategy is to look to sell in favor of a continuation of the prevailing range trade. Ultimately, a close back above 14.50 would be required to negate.

Published in Forex News

Contributed by: DailyFx

The US Dollar starts off the new week and new month under pressure, after the market had been well offered in the final trading day of October. Our bias over the past couple of weeks has been net USD bullish and the latest moves are certainly threatening this outlook. Still, despite the latest USD slide, we retain our bias into Wednesday and ahead of the highly anticipated Fed rate decision, with the very basis for our outlook stemming from the expectation that the Fed will be much less aggressive with its approach to a second round of quantitative easing than the markets have been anticipating.

Technically, despite the Greenback selling over the past few sessions, it is worth noting that the Euro still closed lower against the buck on the week and is only just in the process of consolidating ahead of the next major move. While any gains above 1.4000 should be well offered on Monday, ultimately, only a clear break back above 1.4160 would negate our outlook and open the door for additional Euro gains towards some critical falling trend-line resistance in the 1.4500 area.

As we highlighted in our analysis in the previous week, the theme in the FX market has been very much driven off of broad based sentiment towards the US Dollar. Although most of the major currencies have already taken out some critical levels over the course of the multi-week USD slide, there is still one currency which has been holding out, that could be preventing the Greenback from really being able to mount a meaningful recovery. The Yen is eyeing a retest and break of its 1995 record highs against the USD, and we suggest that once this level is finally taken out, it may offer a good excuse for the markets to finally say that there is effectively no good reason left to sell USDs over the short-term and thereby trigger a significant short-term USD rally. The level in Usd/Jpy comes in by 79.75 and it looks as though we could see the barrier taken out over the coming sessions.

Price action on Monday thus far has seen some more USD selling, with the Yen the key standout currency from a price action standpoint. Any time we see a sharp Yen sell-off that is not confirmed by any official action, we can expect to see the single currency rally quite sharply back to initial levels and beyond, and this is precisely what we have seen in early Monday, with Usd/Jpy spiking before sharply reversing course to trade to fresh multi-year lows below 80.40. Risk sentiment has also been quite healthy in the early week, with some much better than expected China PMI data helping to fuel additional currency buying. Also on the data front, the UK hometrack house survey deteriorated from the previous print, while the Aussie house price index was slightly better.

Looking ahead, the European economic calendar is quite light, with Swiss SVME-PMI (59.3 expected) due at 8:30GMT, followed by UK PMI manufacturing (53.0 expected) at 9:30GMT. US equityfutures and commodities prices are well bid into the European open.

Published in Forex News
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