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Thursday, 11 November 2010 09:24

UFXBank Forex Outlook: EURUSD Touches 5-Week Low

USD Dollar (USD) – The Dollar traded mixed versus the major currencies after positive macro data showed that the Trade Balance came out -44B better than the expected -45B, and the Unemployment Claims came out 435k better than the expected 450k. The Federal Budget Balance came out -140.4B better than the expected -152B. The Stock Markets in the U.S closed positive with the Dow Jones adding 0.09% and the NASDAQ rising by 0.62%. Crude Oil jumped by 1.3% and closed near $88 a barrel. Gold (XAU) erased yesterday’s losses and moved back to trade above $1400 an ounce. Today, US banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day.

Euro (EUR) – The Euro touched fresh 5 week lows against the dollar after it broke the 1.37 area but quickly recovered and back to trade around the 1.38 zone. By the end of the day, there was almost no change seen in the pair. Trading above the 1.38 support area, might push the pair back to 1.4 zones. Overall, EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3670 and with a high of 1.3824. Today, the ECB Monthly Report will come out.

EUR/USD – Last:  1.3795








British Pound (GBP) – The Pound showed stability and gained versus the dollar after the BOE Inflation Report, signaling that the recovery is on track in the region. Trading above the 1.61 support area might push the pair back to 1.63 zones. Overall, GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5959 and with a high of 1.6169. No economic data is expected today.

GBP/USD - Last: 1.6147









Japanese Yen (JPY) – The Dollar gained versus the Yen for a second day in Forex trading, as higher U.S. bond yields favored the selling of the Japanese currency. The Core Machinery Orders came out at -10.3%, worse than the expected -9.5%. Holding above the 82 support level keeps the momentum positive for the pair. Overall, USD/JPY traded with a low of 81.53 and with a high of 82.79. No economic data is expected today.

USD/JPY-Last: 82.16







Canadian dollar (CAD) – Canada's dollar gained versus the U.S. dollar on a rally in crude oil, the nation’s biggest export. The Trade Balance came out at -2.5B, worse than the expected -1.5B. Holding above the 0.9980 support level might cause a rebound once again in the pair. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 0.9991 and with a high of 1.0090. Today, Canadian banks will be closed in observance of Remembrance Day;

USD/CAD - Last: 0.9997








Published in Forex Articles
Wednesday, 10 November 2010 06:58

Chinese Trade Surplus Grows Ahead of G-20

Contributed By: DailyFx

 China’s Trade Balance surplus grew to $27.15 billion in October, above both the $25 billion expectation and the $16.88 billion in September. The number came out higher than anticipated due to the import side of the equation; China’s Imports in October rose 25.3%, below the 28.3% expectation. Exports, on the other hand, rose 22.9% from a year ago, close to the 23% analyst consensus. These figures will do little to dampen the frustration of China’s trading partners, and more calls for China to let the value of its currency rise are likely. Indeed, ahead of the G-20 meeting we see that China has allowed the Yuan rise to the highest level since 1993.

Published in Forex News

Contributed By: DailyFx

 Europe Session Key Developments

* Banks and Automobiles Led the Europe Stoxx 600 Lower
* German DAX Retreats from 2 Year High

European Stocks Closed Lower Amid Renewed Debt Concerns

European markets closed in negative territory at the end of the trading session on Wednesday amid renewed debt concerns. Banks fell throughout the day as the extra yield investors demanded to hold Irish government bonds compared to German bonds widened to a record high. The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 dropped over half of one percent. The gauge has climbed 17 percent since May as company earnings topped estimates and the US Federal Reserve unveiled substantial monetary stimulus. Many investors are concerned that printing money will not be the ultimate solution to solving the tough economic problems plaguing countries throughout the globe. Overall, national benchmark indexes fell in all 18 western European markets.

FTSE 100 / 5,816.94 / -58.25 / -0.99%
The British benchmark gauge declined today as 9 out of 10 sectors closed in the red. UniCredit fell 4.8 percent to 1.73 Euros, the largest drop since June. The bank announced that third quarter profit declined 15 percent after lower trading income outweighed a drop in bad-loan provisions. The overall earnings’ results significantly underperformed expectations. BHP Billiton dropped 2.7 percent as copper, nickel, tin and zinc fell in London trading. Scottish & Southern Electricity Plc climbed 3.7 percent as the company announced earnings that beat estimates.

CAC 40 / 3,888.45 / -57.26 / -1.45%
All 10 sectors in the CAC 40 closed lower at the end of the day. Bouygues SA advanced 1.5 percent as the construction, television and telecommunications company said nine month revenue fell from a year earlier. Colas SA declined 2.8 percent as the organization announced third quarter sales that beat expectations. Meetic SA plunged 12 percent after announcing sales that advanced 23 percent. Dannone SA fell 1.3 percent after the owner of the Evian and Volvic bottled-water brands is talking with Japanese beverage makers about sale of parts or all of its water business.

DAX / 6,719.84 / -67.97 / -1.00%
The German index retreated from two year highs as the banking and automobile sectors led the broad based declines. Deutsche Bank AG fell 2.3 percent, its first drop in five days. Roth & Rau AG sank 11 percent after reporting a decline in nin-month earnings before interest and taxes. Henkel jumped 9.8 percent, climbing the most in the DAX Index, as the maker of glues increased its forecast for full-year profit and announced net income that substantially outpaced analysts’ consensus estimates. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG and Daimler AG lost 2.1 percent to 53.75 Euros and 1.7 percent to 49.18 Euros, respectively. European carmakers declined 2 percent today, the worst performance among all industry groups.

IBEX 35 10,235.40 -174.40 -1.68%
The Madrid benchmark index declined again today, making today’s loss the third fall in four days. Banco Santander SA slid 2.9 percent after Italy’s UniCredit SpA announced that third quarter profit declined 15 percent, substantially missing expectations. Coporacion Financiera Alba SA fell 2.7 percent, snapping four days of gains. The investment company was cut to “underweight” from “overweight” at Mirabaud Finanzas by equity analyst Hector Martinez. Indra Sistemas SA rose for a second day, gaining 1.1 percent as the company announced better than expected sales forecasts.

S&P/MIB / 21,671.63 / -476.80 / -2.15%
The Italian index experienced the steepest decline among the 5 major European benchmark indexes. Autogrill SpA rose 0.9 percent to 9.84 Euros. The world’s largest manager of airport and highway restaurants said third quarter profit grew 33 percent amid a recovery in the travel industry. Banca Popolare di Milano Scrl fell 3.3 percent to 3.14 Euros. The Milan-based cooperative bank announced third-quarter profit dropped 34 percent on the back of lower revenues. Sabaf SpA fell 2.9 percent. The maker of components for gas appliances was downgraded to “hold” from “accumulate” at Banca Akros.

Published in Forex News

Contributed By: DailyFx

 We have seen some pretty remarkable volatility since the FOMC's decision last week; and within that period, the dollar has put up a commendable advance. That being said, I am still very skeptical of the currency's ability to sustain a favorable trend. At this point, the greenback is burning off excess speculative interest - after the two months of consistent selling, it isn't too much of a stretch to suggest that the market is one sided. How much pent up speculative positioning needs to be unwound is a prominent question mark. There could be a wave of profit taking and speculative buying ahead of us. Then again, it could just be a modest correction to get back to 'fair value' before the market starts pricing in the troubles for the dollar a little later down the road. At the moment, it is up in the air. Placing trades on this is dangerous. Therefore, I will remain small, flexible and maintain close targets. I could change my outlook though should a bigger driver accelerate the move or generate momentum in a reversal. What has the necessary influence for such a drive: risk appetite trends, a revived stimulus forecast, financial crisis rumors or a definitive G20 policy.

Waiting for a bigger trend to confirm itself (technically and fundamentally), I am keeping my position few and small. That said, there are a number of potentials. For my live trades, I am sticking with my reduced USDJPY long. We are back up to 82; and a break here will encourage me to add to the position (but without a good fundamental backdrop for the move; I will take a more cautious build). My other live position is the CADJPY long I took on a pullback to 80.80. With a stop of 79.80 and first target of 81.80; a profit or stop should be turned over relatively quickly. Another position that I was close to taking was a short EURUSD on a break of a five week rising trendline at 1.3820; but I would rather wait for a more meaningful trend reversal below 1.37. That would necessarily require a more hearty fundamental driver.

Besides EURUSD, a more active potential is my USDCAD setup. Having held up that long-term rising trendline; it looks good for a true stop and reversal. I'm looking for a half size positon with a retest of 0.9990 (with a 60 point stop and first target). If we don't get back there within the next 36 hours though, I will cancel the order. As an offset to the Canadian dollar; I also have an order to short a reduced EURCAD position at 1.3940 with a 140 point first target and stop. This would be a pullback to former support to fresh resistance on a break of 1.3940. With a shorter time frame than my EURUSD view; I am also looking at AUDUSD as a dollar long setup. A drop below parity will encourage me into a smaller position size with an initial stop and target of 100 points; but that could get altered depending on volatility and fundamental developments.

Published in Forex News
Wednesday, 10 November 2010 06:59

USDJPY: Long Term Bottom in Place?

Contributed By: DailyFx

 USDJPY is rebounding from key support marked by the intersection of a downward-sloping channel set from April’s swing high and a larger one that has defined price action since the second half of 2008. Meanwhile, weekly relative strength studies are turning higher from the most oversold levels since early 2009, we may be witnessing (at least) a corrective rebound in the near term. That said, the intensity of recent weekness argues for caution and I will opt to remain on the sidelines for now until prices issue a daily close above the minor channel top, now at 83.03.

Published in Forex News
Wednesday, 10 November 2010 06:59

Yen Under Pressure and on Verge of Major Reversal

Contributed By: DailyFx

 A break above the 20-Day SMA at 81.19 triggered a long USD/JPY position which we continue to hold. A failed test of the 50-Day SMA at 82.77 could lead to taking partial profits as we are also seeing a five month descending trend line also converging. However, broader weakness and breakouts in other crosses like the CADJPY which we also remain long is firming our bullish conviction. If you are not already in a bullish position then wait for a break above the level as we could see a retracement before a larger reversal begins. We will build into our position as there remains significant upside potential to 100-Day SMA at 84.72.

Published in Forex News
Wednesday, 10 November 2010 06:59

Canadian Dollar Cross Pick 10/11/2010

Contributed By: DailyFx

 As the USD/CAD struggles to hold below parity, the pair should retrace the sharp decline from the end of October as price action continues to trade within the downward trending channel from the previous year. The dollar-loonie appears to have carved a double-bottom after we saw the pair test the 10/14 low at 0.9979 during the previous day, and we are likely to see a small reversal in the pair as price action steadily holds above parity on Wednesday. As a result, I will look to buy the USD/CAD at 1.0088, the 10-Day SMA, and will look for a test of the 200-Day SMA at 1.0315, with a stop at parity.

Published in Forex News

Contributed By: DailyFx

 The CADJPY extended yesterday’s advance during the overnight trade to reach an intraday high of 81.597. Indeed, I am long from 80.86, and will look to maintain my position as technical indicators continue to point to further gains. The parabolic SAR signaled for gains on November 5th, and has yet to reverse course, while the downside risks remain capped by the 10-day SMA. On a fundamental basis, Japan continues to fight deflation. At the same time, households face a weak labor market, and employment conditions are likely to remain under pressure as domestic demand and a slow global recovery adds weight onto hiring. On the other hand, full time positions in Canada continue to gather momentum as employers become more optimistic about growth. All in all, remain long CADJPY, with a soft target of 82.00 and a stop at 80.00. Nonetheless, I am still long the GBPCHF and the GBPJPY. Indeed, I am currently in the money as the BoE said that the recovery will continue, while also noting that inflation will remain above target through 2011.

Meanwhile, I will look to enter into a short EURCAD on a break and close below the 50-day moving average. This level is of particular importance in that it has served as a line of support since September 17th. The euro has been coming under pressure recently as debt concerns resurface. In the coming months, governments in the bloc will implement tough austerity measures, which will weight on growth. Thus, entering a short position upon confirmation may lead to a potential long term short EURCAD trade. Nevertheless, currency traders will place the AUDNZD in the spotlight ahead of the Australian employment report. The RBA recently hiked rates twenty five basis points to 4.75 percent. In turn, a dismal labor force report will lower interest rates expectations, and may lead the AUDNZD to test 1.2750. I may look to trade the event and hold onto the position for a couple of days as downside risks remain.

Published in Forex News
Wednesday, 10 November 2010 07:00

Short EURUSD 10/11/2010

Contributed By: DailyFx

 I've been a bit discouraged after getting stopped out of EURUSD more than once, only to see the pair see a 500-point reversal in under a week. But I'm increasingly confident that this is the EURUSD I've been calling for, as FX Options Sentiment clearly shows many are gearing up for further losses. I'd like to go short EURUSD from 1.3800, stop on an hourly close above 1.3972

Published in Forex News
Wednesday, 10 November 2010 06:58

Markets Rebound After Steep Losses

Contributed By: DailyFx

U.S. Session Key Developments

* Jobless Claims Fall More than Expected
* European Debt Concerns Continue to Hold Market Back

Markets Rebound After Steep Losses
U.S. Markets erased their early losses as the Energy and Financial sector led the rebound. Stocks fell early in the day as global concerns about debt levels across European nations continued to weigh on sentiment ahead of the G-20 meeting. European fears flared as investors dumped Irish, Portuguese and Greek bonds, making relatively safer issues by German more attractive. Markets climbed back as investors grew optimistic about the fact that interest rates are going to stay low and that earnings have been substantially outpacing expectations across the board. US benchmark indexes were also buoyed by the latest jobs report. U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits last week fell by a greater-than-expected 24,000 to 435,000, the lowest level in four months. The four week moving average fell to its lowest point since immediately before the Lehman Brothers collapse. The jobs report, coupled with a better than expected trade deficit number, allowed all three US gauges to remain in the black on Wednesday.

DJIA 30 / 11,356.21 / +9.46 / +0.08%
The DJIA closed relatively flat at the end of the trading session as investors reacted to mixed data. Markets were lifted higher by the jobs and trade deficit reports but refused to surge because of continued European fiscal solvency issues. Energy stocks helped lead the recovery as oil jumped to nearly $88 a barrel. Chevron rose steadily throughout the day to add 1.7 percent. Exxon Mobil also added 0.5 percent. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co. both advanced over 1.5 percent as financial stocks were extremely strong throughout the day. Boeing led the fall among Dow components, tumbling 3 percent after a Boeing 787 Dreamliner made an emergency landing in Texas after the crew reported smoke in the cabin

S&P 500 / 1,218.73 / +5.33 / +0.44%
The S&P 500 advanced slightly as Financials & Energy led the small gain. Macy’s kicked off a wave of earnings news from retailers, falling 1.3 percent despite a return to profitability. Polo Ralph Lauren gained 6 percent after announcing a 16 percent increase in quarterly earnings, outpacing analysts’ consensus estimates. Campbell Soup declined 3.6 percent after slashing its full year earnings forecast as its soup sales stayed weak in the U.S. despite efforts to draw consumers with more promotions on store shelves. Ford Motor got a 3.3 percent boost after BM announced 2 billion dollars in third quarter profit. ING Group advanced 3.6 percent, even after reporting a 26 percent drop in profits, as the firm said it is going to prepare for a base case of two IPOs for its insurance business.

NASDAQ / 2,578.78 / +15.80 / +0.62%
All 10 sectors closed in the black for the NASDAQ at the end of the trading session on Wednesday. The index was led higher by Basic Materials and Financials, with 1.54 and 1.38 percent gains, respectively. The US benchmark gauge experienced the steepest advance among the three major indexes on Wednesday. Google Inc. fell 0.3 percent as the company announced that they would raise salaries by 10 percent in order to retain talent. Investors became worried about whether the tech giant would be able to maintain margins with this increased expense.

Published in Forex News
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