Contributed By: DailyFx

AUD/USD: Setbacks continue to be very well supported, and the market has since broken once again to fresh post-float record highs above parity. Daily studies are not yet showing overbought and from here, the risks are for additional gains into the 1.0100-1.0200 area before considering the possibility of a bearish reversal. At this point, a break back below 0.9650 would be required to ultimately shift outlook back in favor of the downside.

Contributed By: DailyFx

EUR/CHF:The market could finally have found a major base by the recently set record lows at 1.2765, with weekly and monthly studies starting to correct. The cross has finally managed a close back above some major falling trend-line resistance from May to further encourage the prospects for a shift in the trend and additional recovery over the coming weeks. Next key resistance comes in by 1.3925, while setbacks should be very well supported in the 1.3500 area.

Contributed By: DailyFx

EUR/JPY: The market has done a very good job of holding above the daily Ichimoku cloud to suggest that we could be on the verge of a material shift in the structure in favor of significant upside over the medium and longer-term. Daily studies are however in the process of consolidating, so the preferred strategy is to look to buy into dips rather than on upside breaks. A good level to look to establish a long position now comes in by previous resistance turned support in the form of the daily Ichimoku cloud top (currently by 112.00).

Contributed By: DailyFx

EUR/USD:The latest break to fresh multi-day highs beyond 1.4160 puts a serious dent in bearish prospects and now likely opens a fresh upside extension towards next critical resistance by major falling trend-line resistance of off the record highs from 2008 by 1.4500. Daily studies are closer to overbought, but still show plenty of room to run, and any setbacks are expected to be well supported by the 10/20-Day SMAs in the 1.3900’s. At this point, only back below 1.3695 would ultimately relieve topside pressures and potentially force a shift in the structure.

Contributed By: DailyFx

GBP/USD: The market has been holding above 1.6000 barriers over the past few days, and has most recently pushed beyond 1.6100. This opens the door for additional upside over the coming days, with the 1.6500 figure standing out as the next major resistance point. There is some short-term support by 1.5960, and a break back below this level will be required to take the pressure off of the topside.

Contributed By: DailyFx

Now that the long awaited FOMC is behind us we will have to wait and see what direction the dollar is going to move in over the medium term, these trends should start to make themselves known over the coming days. The index traded in a narrow band ahead of the FOMC release yesterday which investors around the world holding their breath ahead of what had been said to be the most important Fed decision in decades. The release itself was slightly anti-climactic coming in more or less in line with expectations, massive volatility ensued (the huge spike in the middle of the chart) as vast sums of money changed hands. Things settled down after the US close with the index once again confined to a relatively narrow range as investors digest the details of the Fed’s latest moves and decide which way to send assets.

We feel it important to note that we have mentioned in the past that a close below the support at 76.50 could open the door to further losses in the index, potentially opening up the 2009 lows just above 74.00. It remains to be seen if these technical signals will be enough to dictate price action in coming sessions but a sustained break of this support should indicate that the index is set for further losses.

Looking ahead, we have quite a busy day ahead of us with the Bank of England and ECB set to decide interest rates, weekly jobless claims from the US and CPI data out of Switzerland. None of these releases should really generate much volatility unless the unexpected happens and, as mentioned above, we recommend remaining sidelined until clearer trends appear.

Contributed By: DailyFx

GBP/JPY: A closer look at Ichimoku studies suggests that we are still very much in downtrend, with the market most recently breaking to fresh 2010 lows by 126.45. However, as mentioned in previous commentary, daily studies were looking quite stretched, and despite the break to fresh yearly lows, the latest sharp bounce suggests that overall, the market is very well supported in the 126.00’s on a medium-term basis. From here, we would not at all be surprised to see additional upside towards 135.00, but we prefer to remain sidelined given what is still an overwhelmingly bearish trend.

Contributed By: DailyFx

NZD/USD: The market continues to accelerate with the latest rallies extending to fresh yearly and multi-month highs and fast approaching critical psychological barriers by 0.8000. However, we recommend that bulls proceed with caution at current levels with daily studies officially overbought and warning of a near-term pullback. As such, any rallies into 0.8000 should be aggressively over the coming sessions in favor of a short-term bearish reversal at a minimum.

Contributed By: DailyFx

USD/CHF: We contend that the market is in the process of carving a material base by 0.9460, and any setbacks should be very well supported ahead of this level in favor of a sustained recovery. The latest setbacks are now being well supported by the 20-Day SMA, and we look for the market to hold above this level on a close basis, ahead of the next upside extension to be confirmed on a break back above 0.9975.

Contributed By: DailyFx

USD/CAD: While we retain a medium-term and longer-term bullish outlook, rallies remain well capped for now, with the market once again dropping back towards parity. However, despite the weakness, we recommend buying on dips into the major psychological barrier with the market expected to be very well supported by the figure. Ultimately, only a close back below 0.9970 would give reason for concern, while a break back above 1.0160 will relieve downside pressures.